640 
FXUS64 KMOB 081757
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1257 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
period. An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon,
however the risk is too low to mention. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR to IFR cigs early this morning followed by
mostly VFR conditions through 09.12z. Expect increasing mid to
high clouds through the 09.12z. A brief shower or thunderstorm
will also be possible mostly over the coastal areas of southwest 
AL and Southeast MS later this morning and early this afternoon. 
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots early today increasing 12
to 16 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon through early 
this evening, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots later this evening 
continuing through 09.12z. 32/ee 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Good isentropic lift
combined with ample moisture in the boundary layer, generally on 
the western side of a sfc to H85 ridge located over the eastern 
Gulf and and SE Conus, will continue to lead to isolated showers 
and thunderstorms over the coastal waters of LA and MS this 
morning spreading northward to the AL coast later this morning and
early this afternoon. Better coverage will shift inland by mid to
late afternoon occurring mostly west of a line generally 
stretching from Gulf Shores AL to east of Waynesboro MS. Latest 
model output shows a weak short wave impulse approaching from the 
southwest this morning also allowing for better lift or forcing in
the mid levels today and early tonight. By late tonight the weak 
impulse will shift off to the northeast and dampen followed by a 
sharp mid level ridge becoming better developed, stretching from 
the central Gulf to the GA/AL border by early Thu morning. 

With better clouds along with a few showers and thunderstorms 
occurring mostly over the western half of the forecast area today 
daytime temps will be a few degrees lower compared to yesterday. 
Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for most 
inland areas and the lower to middle 80s along the immediate coast. 
Lows tonight will be warmer compared to the last few nights, running 
6 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms, ranging from the upper 60s for 
most inland locations generally north of the I-10 corridor, and 
the lower to middle 70s further south stretching to the immediate 
coast. 32/EE 

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...After looking at this
mornings data and model runs, don't see a lot of change from
previous couple of forecast packages for the short term period. 
Expect upper level longwave trough over the western half of the 
country and ridging along the eastern seaboard as the period
begins. The longwave trough over the western half of the CONUS 
cuts off an upper low off the southern CA coast through Friday
night while the remainder of the upper trough advances east over
the Plains through Friday night. An associated surface area of low
pressure lifts northeast out of the southern Plains, across the
Great Lakes and into eastern Canada through Friday night, bringing
a trailing cold front toward the southeastern states through
Thursday evening then stalling it over the southeast just to the
north and west of our forecast area by Friday night. This will 
bring an increased chance for showers and storms beginning 
Thursday and continuing through Friday night and beyond. Low level
southeasterly flow will continue to bring abundant moisture into 
the region, allowing afternoon MLCAPES on Thursday to climb into 
the the 2500 J/KG range in some locations. This could allow some 
of the convection to become strong during the day on Thursday, 
especially over our northwestern zones. SPC continues to have some
of the western portions of our forecast area outlooked for 
Marginal Risk of severe weather, but overall shear will remain low
and stronger mid/upper level dynamics will generally be well to
the north and lifting out away from the area. In addition, model
soundings still show wet bulb zero values in the 12 KFT to 13 KFT
foot level. All of these factors should help limit any severe
threat for our area. Gradient for precipitation across the area
through the period, with greatest chances (where we have likely
PoPs each afternoon and evening) of showers and storms over our
northwestern counties with PoPs somewhat lower to the southern 
and eastern portions of the forecast area. No real changes to the 
pattern through the entire short term period, so rainfall totals 
of up to around 1 inch with locally higher values are expected 
over parts of interior southeast Mississippi and west central 
Alabama which could lead to mainly nuisance type flooding. We will
continue to monitor for this potential. Daytime highs (upper 80s)
above normal over eastern zones but around normal back toward the
west where we are expecting more cloud cover and precipitation. 
Overnight lows above normal as well, generally in the mid to upper
60s inland and lower 70s at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Early in the long term
period, the upper trough lifts northeast into the New England
states with ridging gradually building over our area through the
period. This will push the nearly stationary front east of our
area by Monday, with a drier weather pattern setting up by early
next week. A little cooler over the weekend and into early next
week in the wake of the system, with highs cooling from mid and
upper 80s for most locations on Saturday to the low to mid 80s
area wide Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows cooling into the
upper 50d inland to the upper 60s coastal by early next week.
12/DS

MARINE...A light to moderate south to southeast wind flow will 
persist through the remainder of the week in response to high 
pressure slowly shifting eastward combined with a weak cold front 
slowly approaching from the northwest. As the weak front nears late 
in the week rain chances increase with scattered to occasional 
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday through early 
next week. The weak cold front will eventually move off the coast by 
early next week leading to a light offshore flow by early Monday.
32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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