640 FXUS64 KMOB 081757 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1257 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon, however the risk is too low to mention. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 12Z issuance...MVFR to IFR cigs early this morning followed by mostly VFR conditions through 09.12z. Expect increasing mid to high clouds through the 09.12z. A brief shower or thunderstorm will also be possible mostly over the coastal areas of southwest AL and Southeast MS later this morning and early this afternoon. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots early today increasing 12 to 16 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon through early this evening, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots later this evening continuing through 09.12z. 32/ee PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Good isentropic lift combined with ample moisture in the boundary layer, generally on the western side of a sfc to H85 ridge located over the eastern Gulf and and SE Conus, will continue to lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters of LA and MS this morning spreading northward to the AL coast later this morning and early this afternoon. Better coverage will shift inland by mid to late afternoon occurring mostly west of a line generally stretching from Gulf Shores AL to east of Waynesboro MS. Latest model output shows a weak short wave impulse approaching from the southwest this morning also allowing for better lift or forcing in the mid levels today and early tonight. By late tonight the weak impulse will shift off to the northeast and dampen followed by a sharp mid level ridge becoming better developed, stretching from the central Gulf to the GA/AL border by early Thu morning. With better clouds along with a few showers and thunderstorms occurring mostly over the western half of the forecast area today daytime temps will be a few degrees lower compared to yesterday. Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 80s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will be warmer compared to the last few nights, running 6 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms, ranging from the upper 60s for most inland locations generally north of the I-10 corridor, and the lower to middle 70s further south stretching to the immediate coast. 32/EE SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...After looking at this mornings data and model runs, don't see a lot of change from previous couple of forecast packages for the short term period. Expect upper level longwave trough over the western half of the country and ridging along the eastern seaboard as the period begins. The longwave trough over the western half of the CONUS cuts off an upper low off the southern CA coast through Friday night while the remainder of the upper trough advances east over the Plains through Friday night. An associated surface area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the southern Plains, across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada through Friday night, bringing a trailing cold front toward the southeastern states through Thursday evening then stalling it over the southeast just to the north and west of our forecast area by Friday night. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms beginning Thursday and continuing through Friday night and beyond. Low level southeasterly flow will continue to bring abundant moisture into the region, allowing afternoon MLCAPES on Thursday to climb into the the 2500 J/KG range in some locations. This could allow some of the convection to become strong during the day on Thursday, especially over our northwestern zones. SPC continues to have some of the western portions of our forecast area outlooked for Marginal Risk of severe weather, but overall shear will remain low and stronger mid/upper level dynamics will generally be well to the north and lifting out away from the area. In addition, model soundings still show wet bulb zero values in the 12 KFT to 13 KFT foot level. All of these factors should help limit any severe threat for our area. Gradient for precipitation across the area through the period, with greatest chances (where we have likely PoPs each afternoon and evening) of showers and storms over our northwestern counties with PoPs somewhat lower to the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. No real changes to the pattern through the entire short term period, so rainfall totals of up to around 1 inch with locally higher values are expected over parts of interior southeast Mississippi and west central Alabama which could lead to mainly nuisance type flooding. We will continue to monitor for this potential. Daytime highs (upper 80s) above normal over eastern zones but around normal back toward the west where we are expecting more cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight lows above normal as well, generally in the mid to upper 60s inland and lower 70s at the coast. 12/DS LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Early in the long term period, the upper trough lifts northeast into the New England states with ridging gradually building over our area through the period. This will push the nearly stationary front east of our area by Monday, with a drier weather pattern setting up by early next week. A little cooler over the weekend and into early next week in the wake of the system, with highs cooling from mid and upper 80s for most locations on Saturday to the low to mid 80s area wide Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows cooling into the upper 50d inland to the upper 60s coastal by early next week. 12/DS MARINE...A light to moderate south to southeast wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week in response to high pressure slowly shifting eastward combined with a weak cold front slowly approaching from the northwest. As the weak front nears late in the week rain chances increase with scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday through early next week. The weak cold front will eventually move off the coast by early next week leading to a light offshore flow by early Monday. 32/EE && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob