319 
FXUS62 KFFC 040551 AAC
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the overnight forecast. Still potential
for an early morning flare up of showers and storms Saturday
morning.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 700 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

To begin the short term period, weak shortwave energy embedded 
within the southwesterly mid-level flow is bringing in some 
scattered convection to far north Georgia. A weak wave just off the 
east coast of Florida is meanwhile expected to spread isolated to 
scattered convection over the southeastern corner of the forecast 
area. The highest chance of precipitation will be across these two 
locations this afternoon with chance PoPs. Slight chance PoPs will 
be sandwiched between these two areas. Instability will be 
sufficient to support thunder, but with limited shear and weak 
dynamics severe thunderstorms are not anticipated this afternoon and 
tonight. It is nonetheless possible that a few isolated strong 
storms could produce some gusty winds.

On Saturday, a shallow upper trough axis and a mid-level shortwave 
shifts eastward into the forecast area. Likely PoPs are expected 
across north Georgia and chance PoPs elsewhere by Saturday 
afternoon. Moderate instability will be present ahead of this 
system, along with a better mid-level wind field than today, which
will provide better dynamics, particularly in the northern part 
of the area north of the I-85 corridor. As a result of these 
factors, there will be more of a risk for severe weather tomorrow,
with the main threats with any severe storms that occur being 
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

King

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Not much change made to the extended forecast. Models continue to be 
in fairly good agreement with the storm system Sunday and clearing 
things out Mon/Tue. They are also coming into better agreement as we 
get into days 5-7. The frontal system moving through the area Sunday 
looks like it will take a bit longer to exit the area so keeping 
higher pops in a bit longer through Sunday evening. Drier air does 
begin to filter into into the state from the NW behind the exiting 
system Sunday afternoon/evening. The drier airmass will have moved 
in across the state by Sunday night and should keep things dry for 
Monday and Tuesday. The GFS/ECMWF are developing an upper trough 
over the western US and are amplifying a ridge over the eastern US. 
The GFS continues to be a bit more amplified than the ECMWF, however 
this far out into the future there is not a lot of difference between 
the two. All in all this put GA in moist southwesterly flow with 
waves moving across the region through the end of next week. Keeping 
30-60 percent pops across the area days 5-7.

01

&&

AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area 
through the majority of this forecast period outside of areas of 
convection. Will see some local to scattered areas of MVFR or lower 
visibilities through 14Z, however only brief impacts at any TAF 
sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the far north 
after 00Z and spread south through the remainder of the overnight 
period into Sunday morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms remain 
possible through 14Z, becoming more widespread in coverage after. 
Light west to southwest winds will increase to 5-10kt by 16-18Z. 

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  83  64  81 /  20  60  60  50 
Atlanta         65  82  64  79 /  20  60  60  50 
Blairsville     58  77  59  74 /  30  60  70  60 
Cartersville    62  81  62  78 /  20  70  80  40 
Columbus        67  85  66  82 /  20  50  60  50 
Gainesville     62  80  63  78 /  20  60  70  50 
Macon           65  86  66  82 /  10  50  50  50 
Rome            62  81  62  79 /  20  70  80  30 
Peachtree City  63  83  63  80 /  20  50  60  50 
Vidalia         68  88  69  84 /  20  40  30  60 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL