319 FXUS62 KFFC 040551 AAC AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 155 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 .UPDATE... No major changes to the overnight forecast. Still potential for an early morning flare up of showers and storms Saturday morning. BDL && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 700 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... To begin the short term period, weak shortwave energy embedded within the southwesterly mid-level flow is bringing in some scattered convection to far north Georgia. A weak wave just off the east coast of Florida is meanwhile expected to spread isolated to scattered convection over the southeastern corner of the forecast area. The highest chance of precipitation will be across these two locations this afternoon with chance PoPs. Slight chance PoPs will be sandwiched between these two areas. Instability will be sufficient to support thunder, but with limited shear and weak dynamics severe thunderstorms are not anticipated this afternoon and tonight. It is nonetheless possible that a few isolated strong storms could produce some gusty winds. On Saturday, a shallow upper trough axis and a mid-level shortwave shifts eastward into the forecast area. Likely PoPs are expected across north Georgia and chance PoPs elsewhere by Saturday afternoon. Moderate instability will be present ahead of this system, along with a better mid-level wind field than today, which will provide better dynamics, particularly in the northern part of the area north of the I-85 corridor. As a result of these factors, there will be more of a risk for severe weather tomorrow, with the main threats with any severe storms that occur being damaging wind gusts and large hail. King LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Not much change made to the extended forecast. Models continue to be in fairly good agreement with the storm system Sunday and clearing things out Mon/Tue. They are also coming into better agreement as we get into days 5-7. The frontal system moving through the area Sunday looks like it will take a bit longer to exit the area so keeping higher pops in a bit longer through Sunday evening. Drier air does begin to filter into into the state from the NW behind the exiting system Sunday afternoon/evening. The drier airmass will have moved in across the state by Sunday night and should keep things dry for Monday and Tuesday. The GFS/ECMWF are developing an upper trough over the western US and are amplifying a ridge over the eastern US. The GFS continues to be a bit more amplified than the ECMWF, however this far out into the future there is not a lot of difference between the two. All in all this put GA in moist southwesterly flow with waves moving across the region through the end of next week. Keeping 30-60 percent pops across the area days 5-7. 01 && AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area through the majority of this forecast period outside of areas of convection. Will see some local to scattered areas of MVFR or lower visibilities through 14Z, however only brief impacts at any TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the far north after 00Z and spread south through the remainder of the overnight period into Sunday morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms remain possible through 14Z, becoming more widespread in coverage after. Light west to southwest winds will increase to 5-10kt by 16-18Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 83 64 81 / 20 60 60 50 Atlanta 65 82 64 79 / 20 60 60 50 Blairsville 58 77 59 74 / 30 60 70 60 Cartersville 62 81 62 78 / 20 70 80 40 Columbus 67 85 66 82 / 20 50 60 50 Gainesville 62 80 63 78 / 20 60 70 50 Macon 65 86 66 82 / 10 50 50 50 Rome 62 81 62 79 / 20 70 80 30 Peachtree City 63 83 63 80 / 20 50 60 50 Vidalia 68 88 69 84 / 20 40 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...BDL