161 
FXUS63 KTOP 062353
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
653 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

The main concern through the short term period is the threat for 
a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. 

As of 19Z Saturday afternoon broad cyclonic midlevel flow was 
present across the the central and southern Plain. A strong 
shortwave trough was lifting northeastward through portions of 
central OK. Surface heating combined with modest midlevel lapse 
rates near 7 C/km have yielded upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across 
much of the area. Vertical wind profiles are relatively weak with 20-
30 kt of effective shear present. Scattered showers and thunderstorm 
are currently developing across portions of central and southern KS. 
As the shortwave trough overspreads the region, thunderstorm 
activity is expected to expand from southwest to northeast through 
the afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible, 
especially south of I-70 where the most favorable shear profiles are 
expected. Given the multiple inflections within forecast hodographs, 
expect updrafts to be short-lived with multicell clusters being the 
predominate convective mode. As a result the primary hazards include 
large hail and damaging winds. The initial round of convection is 
expected to exit the area near midnight. An additional batch of 
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along the weak 
surface trough across the High Plains this afternoon. As the weak 
trough encroaches the area late tonight into Sunday morning, 
additional showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. 
Overnight lows will remain quite mild with temperatures in the 50s. 

The aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to slowly push across 
the forecast area Sunday afternoon, yielding additional thunderstorm 
chances. Given the weak large scale ascent combined with a stout 
EML, thinking thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated at best. 
A weakly sheared environment should preclude any organized 
convection. Another warm day is anticipated Sunday afternoon as 
highs once again reach the low to middle 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, a quite start to the work-
week is expected as midlevel ridging builds across the central US. 
Temperatures are likely to near 80 Monday afternoon and possibly 
Tuesday afternoon. Our attention then turns westward towards a 
strong midlevel low that is progged to traverse the central US 
Wednesday into Thursday. 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions have better aligned 
with the track of the low into portions of southern NE/northern KS. 
The triple point location Wednesday afternoon is still quite 
uncertain with solutions varying from western NE to southern KS. 
Regardless a stout EML within the warm sector will likely restrict 
convective development. Additional post-frontal thunderstorm activity 
is likely Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the main midlevel low 
overspreads the area. Depending on the exact track of the surface 
low, sufficient CAA may overspread northern KS to transition rain 
over to snow Thursday afternoon/evening. A surface ridge will 
overspread the area by weeks-end as high temperatures only reach the 
50s Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday 
mornings will likely bottom out in the low to middle 30s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will continue at KMHK and move into KTOP
and KFOE by 00Z. Isolated stronger storms may produce wind gusts
of 30 to 40 KTS, dime size hail, and heavy rain reducing
visibilities below 2SM through 2Z SUN. The showers and
thunderstorms should lift northeast of the terminals late this
evening. During the showers and thunderstorms this evening, ceilings
may drop down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet at times. After 5z, expect 
VFR conditions through Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Gargan