161 FXUS63 KTOP 062353 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019 The main concern through the short term period is the threat for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. As of 19Z Saturday afternoon broad cyclonic midlevel flow was present across the the central and southern Plain. A strong shortwave trough was lifting northeastward through portions of central OK. Surface heating combined with modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km have yielded upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across much of the area. Vertical wind profiles are relatively weak with 20- 30 kt of effective shear present. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are currently developing across portions of central and southern KS. As the shortwave trough overspreads the region, thunderstorm activity is expected to expand from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible, especially south of I-70 where the most favorable shear profiles are expected. Given the multiple inflections within forecast hodographs, expect updrafts to be short-lived with multicell clusters being the predominate convective mode. As a result the primary hazards include large hail and damaging winds. The initial round of convection is expected to exit the area near midnight. An additional batch of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along the weak surface trough across the High Plains this afternoon. As the weak trough encroaches the area late tonight into Sunday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Overnight lows will remain quite mild with temperatures in the 50s. The aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to slowly push across the forecast area Sunday afternoon, yielding additional thunderstorm chances. Given the weak large scale ascent combined with a stout EML, thinking thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated at best. A weakly sheared environment should preclude any organized convection. Another warm day is anticipated Sunday afternoon as highs once again reach the low to middle 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019 Transitioning into the extended period, a quite start to the work- week is expected as midlevel ridging builds across the central US. Temperatures are likely to near 80 Monday afternoon and possibly Tuesday afternoon. Our attention then turns westward towards a strong midlevel low that is progged to traverse the central US Wednesday into Thursday. 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions have better aligned with the track of the low into portions of southern NE/northern KS. The triple point location Wednesday afternoon is still quite uncertain with solutions varying from western NE to southern KS. Regardless a stout EML within the warm sector will likely restrict convective development. Additional post-frontal thunderstorm activity is likely Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the main midlevel low overspreads the area. Depending on the exact track of the surface low, sufficient CAA may overspread northern KS to transition rain over to snow Thursday afternoon/evening. A surface ridge will overspread the area by weeks-end as high temperatures only reach the 50s Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will likely bottom out in the low to middle 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will continue at KMHK and move into KTOP and KFOE by 00Z. Isolated stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 KTS, dime size hail, and heavy rain reducing visibilities below 2SM through 2Z SUN. The showers and thunderstorms should lift northeast of the terminals late this evening. During the showers and thunderstorms this evening, ceilings may drop down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet at times. After 5z, expect VFR conditions through Sunday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Gargan