230 
FXUS63 KFGF 051624
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1124 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

While not everywhere, pockets of dense fog linger across parts of
eastern ND and northwest MN, so Dense Fog Advisory was extended to
1PM to account for this. Light showers in the southern RRV have
improved vis and I expired Ransom/Sargent counties at 11AM. It is
still possible that the dense fog will advect towards the southern
CWA and then linger/increase in coverage late this afternoon into
the overnight period. Re-issuance or further adjustment to 
current advisory may be necessary. 

UPDATE Issued at 913 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Expanded Dense Fog Advisory to include northwest MN north of Hwy
20 and a few extra counties in ND based on current obs trends
matching short range/high resolution guidance. Potential for fog
to linger into afternoon and adjustment to Wx was made to account
for that. Still kept Dense Fog Advisory expiration at 11AM as at
least some counties will be improving at that point. Might need to
extend counties near stalled boundary if dense fog lingers into
the afternoon. 

UPDATE Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Lowered hourly temps for the north this morning with clouds and fog 
over the area. Radar indicated showers have developed over south 
central ND and were moving east about 30 knots. Added a fog advisory 
for the western zones and a couple counties in northwest MN for the 
morning. No other changes at this update. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) 
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Water vapor loop indicated a weak upper level trough over northwest 
MN. A cold front over southern MAN will move into the area today and 
stall over the central Red River Valley. A large upper trough was 
located over northern MAN and will send a reinforcing cool air to 
the northern valley for tonight. Concurrently warmer air will move 
north into the southern valley tonight.  Low level convergent flow 
will set up across the southern valley today and tonight. Will keep 
low pops in the south. More warm and moist air moves north Sat and 
so will the pops. Will keep temps down today and Sat with plenty of 
clouds expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM CDT
Fri Apr 5 2019

Saturday night will see a 500 mb short wave move into SE South 
Dakota into S Minnesota.  Surface low is forecast to be in far 
northeastern South Dakota 06z Sunday.  In the 00z-06z Sun period 
there is an increase in instability to the northeast of the sfc low 
in warm advection region with focus of this instability and sfc warm 
front near Aberdeen to Fergus Falls/Wadena/Park Rapids area.  Near 
and just north of this front is where the better chance for 
thunderstorms will and a higher risk for heavy rainfall with 0.50 to 
1 inch amounts possible.   Where this would set up is quite crucial 
due to ongoing flooding, but the general model consensus is for the 
heavier precip to remain near the warm frontal boundary and thus 
focus the rainfall from far NE SD, far SE ND into WC MN...south of 
the immediate Fargo area.  Most of the rainfall chances in this area 
to exit Sunday morning.   Farther north less support for heavier 
rainfall, with focus south and also northwest of the area closer to 
a stronger 500 mb wave in eastern Saskatchewan into Manitoba.  Thus 
for majority of the Red River basin, Fargo and north the risk of 
impactful rainfall is less with average amounts of 0.10 to 0.30
inch.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

MVFR to IFR conditions were across the area with fog and low cigs. 
Expect a slow improvement for the morning with fog and low clouds. 
The fog will lift this morning but low cigs will remain. Expect MVFR 
to IFR conditions for today and tonight. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Temperatures appear to not warm quite as much as thought 
earlier, but still warm enough for continued snow melt and slow ice 
breakup.  Rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning should help in 
this as well.  But ice on the rivers remain thick and not quite warm 
enough for a sudden melt of river ice. Therefore impacts will 
continue for a few more days. 

The southern portions of the Red River Valley including Hickson, 
Lisbon, Hawley, and Mapleton, are seeing water levels gradually 
level off; however, they are expected to remain in flood stage for 
the next few days. Wahpeton, Sabin, and Dilworth will see gradual 
decreases in water levels.

Fargo will see continued rises this weekend as it crosses into major 
flood stage early Friday.  Grand Forks and Oslo as well will 
continue a steady rise.  No changes to the previous 
forecasts in regards to river levels thru the 7 days.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>016.


Areal and river point flood warnings continue across portions of
the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

&&
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JH