230 FXUS63 KFGF 051624 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1124 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 While not everywhere, pockets of dense fog linger across parts of eastern ND and northwest MN, so Dense Fog Advisory was extended to 1PM to account for this. Light showers in the southern RRV have improved vis and I expired Ransom/Sargent counties at 11AM. It is still possible that the dense fog will advect towards the southern CWA and then linger/increase in coverage late this afternoon into the overnight period. Re-issuance or further adjustment to current advisory may be necessary. UPDATE Issued at 913 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Expanded Dense Fog Advisory to include northwest MN north of Hwy 20 and a few extra counties in ND based on current obs trends matching short range/high resolution guidance. Potential for fog to linger into afternoon and adjustment to Wx was made to account for that. Still kept Dense Fog Advisory expiration at 11AM as at least some counties will be improving at that point. Might need to extend counties near stalled boundary if dense fog lingers into the afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Lowered hourly temps for the north this morning with clouds and fog over the area. Radar indicated showers have developed over south central ND and were moving east about 30 knots. Added a fog advisory for the western zones and a couple counties in northwest MN for the morning. No other changes at this update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Water vapor loop indicated a weak upper level trough over northwest MN. A cold front over southern MAN will move into the area today and stall over the central Red River Valley. A large upper trough was located over northern MAN and will send a reinforcing cool air to the northern valley for tonight. Concurrently warmer air will move north into the southern valley tonight. Low level convergent flow will set up across the southern valley today and tonight. Will keep low pops in the south. More warm and moist air moves north Sat and so will the pops. Will keep temps down today and Sat with plenty of clouds expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Saturday night will see a 500 mb short wave move into SE South Dakota into S Minnesota. Surface low is forecast to be in far northeastern South Dakota 06z Sunday. In the 00z-06z Sun period there is an increase in instability to the northeast of the sfc low in warm advection region with focus of this instability and sfc warm front near Aberdeen to Fergus Falls/Wadena/Park Rapids area. Near and just north of this front is where the better chance for thunderstorms will and a higher risk for heavy rainfall with 0.50 to 1 inch amounts possible. Where this would set up is quite crucial due to ongoing flooding, but the general model consensus is for the heavier precip to remain near the warm frontal boundary and thus focus the rainfall from far NE SD, far SE ND into WC MN...south of the immediate Fargo area. Most of the rainfall chances in this area to exit Sunday morning. Farther north less support for heavier rainfall, with focus south and also northwest of the area closer to a stronger 500 mb wave in eastern Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Thus for majority of the Red River basin, Fargo and north the risk of impactful rainfall is less with average amounts of 0.10 to 0.30 inch. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 MVFR to IFR conditions were across the area with fog and low cigs. Expect a slow improvement for the morning with fog and low clouds. The fog will lift this morning but low cigs will remain. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions for today and tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Temperatures appear to not warm quite as much as thought earlier, but still warm enough for continued snow melt and slow ice breakup. Rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning should help in this as well. But ice on the rivers remain thick and not quite warm enough for a sudden melt of river ice. Therefore impacts will continue for a few more days. The southern portions of the Red River Valley including Hickson, Lisbon, Hawley, and Mapleton, are seeing water levels gradually level off; however, they are expected to remain in flood stage for the next few days. Wahpeton, Sabin, and Dilworth will see gradual decreases in water levels. Fargo will see continued rises this weekend as it crosses into major flood stage early Friday. Grand Forks and Oslo as well will continue a steady rise. No changes to the previous forecasts in regards to river levels thru the 7 days. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001-002- 004>009-013>016. Areal and river point flood warnings continue across portions of the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...Riddle AVIATION...JH