575 
FXUS62 KFFC 051331
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
931 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019



.UPDATE...
Most of the rainfall has ended across the CWFA this morning. A few
showers still linger across northern GA, but they are quickly
moving off to the east. Not totally removing pops for the
remainder of the afternoon...the upper level energy is still
moving through. Isolated/Sct shra possible. The potential for
thunder continues, but should be confined to the areas with the
best moisture, which is the southern quarter of the outlook area. 

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 749 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ 

UPDATE...

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Ongoing widespread showers across the area are diminishing in 
coverage and becoming more scattered in nature. Showery 
conditions are expected to continue through the morning and early 
afternoon hours and push east as an upper level shortwave moves 
through the area. There is some instability with this system so 
kept slight chance thunder across much of the area through the 
rest of the morning and into the afternoon when instability 
increases further across central Georgia. Chances for showers will
diminish across parts of northern Georgia by later this 
afternoon/evening, but will continue across portions of central 
Georgia as a weak front looks to stall in the vicinity of 
central/southern Georgia. Not expecting clouds to clear 
completely, but some sunshine is expected to get through allowing 
high temperatures today to warm up to the 60s and 70s across the 
area. 

For Saturday, the front looks to drift slowly northward through the 
day and additional moisture advects into the central Georgia. This 
will help provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on 
Saturday. Best chances for precip look to be across the bottom two-
thirds of the CWA through much of Saturday. High temperatures 
Saturday are expected to be slightly warmer than today with 70s 
across much of the area with portions of central Georgia even 
reaching 80 degrees. As we get into Saturday night, southwesterly 
flow takes over ahead of the next system approaching the area. 

Reaves

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the overall pattern through 
much of the period. Both models indicate a warm front across central 
GA through the remainder of the weekend with southerly flow into the 
area. Chance or slight chance pops still look okay for that time 
with the air mass unstable enough for isolated thunder. Southerly 
flow increases Monday ahead of a strong southern stream short wave. 
This wave should cross the TN Valley/Southern Appalachian area 
Monday night into Tuesday. Likely or higher pops look okay for 
Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance of thunder mentioned for 
all periods. Models take this wave east of our area by Tuesday night 
with ridging taking place over north and central GA for Wednesday 
and Wednesday night. By Thursday a front trailing from a strong 
upper mid west short wave will approach GA. Have kept only a slight 
chance for showers across the far north for that day.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Scattered IFR/MVFR cigs and -RA/-SHRA (or VCSH) expected to 
continue at all TAF sites before more widespread rain across N GA is
expected to end around 14-15Z. IFR ceilings are expected to last 
through about 15-17Z before returning to MVFR/VFR cigs for the 
afternoon. Cigs are then expected to drop to IFR with reduced
vsbys and patchy fog for Saturday morning. Chances for SHRA/TSRA 
increase at the end of the taf cycle. Winds are currently SE 
around 3-7 kts, but should shift SW/W by about 12-13Z
before shifting E around 23-00Z Friday evening.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on winds staying W/SW and afternoon 
cigs. Medium confidence on all other elements. 

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  54  76  60 /  80  20  20  20 
Atlanta         72  57  75  62 /  60  20  30  20 
Blairsville     64  49  74  56 /  80  10  10  20 
Cartersville    71  55  76  61 /  50  20  20  20 
Columbus        76  61  78  63 /  50  30  40  20 
Gainesville     66  54  74  60 /  80  10  20  20 
Macon           75  59  77  62 /  60  30  40  20 
Rome            72  54  78  60 /  50  20  20  30 
Peachtree City  74  57  76  60 /  50  20  40  20 
Vidalia         77  62  80  64 /  70  50  40  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Reaves