575 FXUS62 KFFC 051331 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 931 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .UPDATE... Most of the rainfall has ended across the CWFA this morning. A few showers still linger across northern GA, but they are quickly moving off to the east. Not totally removing pops for the remainder of the afternoon...the upper level energy is still moving through. Isolated/Sct shra possible. The potential for thunder continues, but should be confined to the areas with the best moisture, which is the southern quarter of the outlook area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 749 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Ongoing widespread showers across the area are diminishing in coverage and becoming more scattered in nature. Showery conditions are expected to continue through the morning and early afternoon hours and push east as an upper level shortwave moves through the area. There is some instability with this system so kept slight chance thunder across much of the area through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon when instability increases further across central Georgia. Chances for showers will diminish across parts of northern Georgia by later this afternoon/evening, but will continue across portions of central Georgia as a weak front looks to stall in the vicinity of central/southern Georgia. Not expecting clouds to clear completely, but some sunshine is expected to get through allowing high temperatures today to warm up to the 60s and 70s across the area. For Saturday, the front looks to drift slowly northward through the day and additional moisture advects into the central Georgia. This will help provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday. Best chances for precip look to be across the bottom two- thirds of the CWA through much of Saturday. High temperatures Saturday are expected to be slightly warmer than today with 70s across much of the area with portions of central Georgia even reaching 80 degrees. As we get into Saturday night, southwesterly flow takes over ahead of the next system approaching the area. Reaves LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the overall pattern through much of the period. Both models indicate a warm front across central GA through the remainder of the weekend with southerly flow into the area. Chance or slight chance pops still look okay for that time with the air mass unstable enough for isolated thunder. Southerly flow increases Monday ahead of a strong southern stream short wave. This wave should cross the TN Valley/Southern Appalachian area Monday night into Tuesday. Likely or higher pops look okay for Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance of thunder mentioned for all periods. Models take this wave east of our area by Tuesday night with ridging taking place over north and central GA for Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday a front trailing from a strong upper mid west short wave will approach GA. Have kept only a slight chance for showers across the far north for that day. 41 AVIATION... 12Z Update... Scattered IFR/MVFR cigs and -RA/-SHRA (or VCSH) expected to continue at all TAF sites before more widespread rain across N GA is expected to end around 14-15Z. IFR ceilings are expected to last through about 15-17Z before returning to MVFR/VFR cigs for the afternoon. Cigs are then expected to drop to IFR with reduced vsbys and patchy fog for Saturday morning. Chances for SHRA/TSRA increase at the end of the taf cycle. Winds are currently SE around 3-7 kts, but should shift SW/W by about 12-13Z before shifting E around 23-00Z Friday evening. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Low to medium confidence on winds staying W/SW and afternoon cigs. Medium confidence on all other elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 54 76 60 / 80 20 20 20 Atlanta 72 57 75 62 / 60 20 30 20 Blairsville 64 49 74 56 / 80 10 10 20 Cartersville 71 55 76 61 / 50 20 20 20 Columbus 76 61 78 63 / 50 30 40 20 Gainesville 66 54 74 60 / 80 10 20 20 Macon 75 59 77 62 / 60 30 40 20 Rome 72 54 78 60 / 50 20 20 30 Peachtree City 74 57 76 60 / 50 20 40 20 Vidalia 77 62 80 64 / 70 50 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reaves LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...Reaves