696 
FXUS61 KBGM 041838
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm will move into the Mid-Atlantic overnight and slide up
the eastern seaboard on Friday. This storm will bring a light
wintry mix to NY and portions of PA early Friday before the
precipitation changes to rain during the morning hours. Dry and
mild conditions are forecast for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1130 AM update...

Temperatures are running a few degrees below plan this morning,
so we made minor adjustments to the forecast highs this
afternoon. Otherwise, we're keeping an eye on the eastern
forecast area where relative humidities are low and winds are
gusty. We expect temperatures will remain cool but will continue
to assess fire danger.

Previous discussion...

Surface high pressure will reside over the area today with
mostly sunny skies but cool temperatures. Gusty winds will 
develop later this morning across the northern forecast area 
into the western Catskills where gusts around 25 mph will be 
common. Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s across 
central New York and 45 to 50 in northeast Pennsylvania. 

Tonight through Friday...Surface low pressure will move into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys overnight then into the mid Atlantic on 
Friday. Models continue the tend of slowing the precipitation 
onset time and this seems reasonable with the 700mb ridge axis 
over the area at 09Z and plenty of low level dry air. By 12Z 
light precipitation is expected across the central southern 
tier and parts of northeast Pennsylvania. The precipitation 
makes quick progress across the entire region during the morning
hours as low levels saturate and lift enhances due to 
overrunning. A wintry mix still looks likely Friday morning with
a snow/freezing rain combination most likely early but 
isothermal layer around 0C makes precipitation type 
determination difficult. Any snow or ice accretion will be 
minor as temperatures warm at most places by mid morning. The 
higher elevations of the western Catskills could see a mix 
through midday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s in
the western Catskills to mid 40s in the lake plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 

High pressure builds in for Saturday bringing drier air and
seasonable temperatures. The high will slowly slide east over
the weekend in response to a broad area of low pressure over the
center of the country. This system will begin to spread clouds
and moisture into the area later Sunday with a chance of showers
breaking out late in the day over the western zones.
Temperatures will remain near or above normal for Sunday so
there's no risk of any mixed precipitation. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

An elongated area of low pressure with northern and southern
stream components will sweep in Sunday night into Monday likely bringing
showers. Rain lingers into early Tuesday when a cold front
sweeps through bringing wrap around rain showers and night time
snow showers into early Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will
build into the area later Wednesday bringing dry weather.
Temperatures will begin the period above normal on Monday to
start the period but fall below normal behind the cold front
during the midweek.  

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will hold through the evening hours before a
Mid-Atlantic storm spreads a wintry mix of precipitation across
the region Friday morning. Ceilings and visibilities will drop 
into MVFR territory as a mix of rain and snow moves across the
region, and pockets of freezing are likely over our NY 
terminals through mid to late-morning. Brief IFR ceilings and
visibilities are also possible in snow showers.

The precipitation will change to all rain by noon and continue
into the afternoon.

Outlook... 

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Restrictions likely in 
rain, though possibly beginning as a wintry mix for NY terminals
Friday morning.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Beginning VFR, then possible restrictions in showers 
late.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJP