696 FXUS61 KBGM 041838 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A storm will move into the Mid-Atlantic overnight and slide up the eastern seaboard on Friday. This storm will bring a light wintry mix to NY and portions of PA early Friday before the precipitation changes to rain during the morning hours. Dry and mild conditions are forecast for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1130 AM update... Temperatures are running a few degrees below plan this morning, so we made minor adjustments to the forecast highs this afternoon. Otherwise, we're keeping an eye on the eastern forecast area where relative humidities are low and winds are gusty. We expect temperatures will remain cool but will continue to assess fire danger. Previous discussion... Surface high pressure will reside over the area today with mostly sunny skies but cool temperatures. Gusty winds will develop later this morning across the northern forecast area into the western Catskills where gusts around 25 mph will be common. Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s across central New York and 45 to 50 in northeast Pennsylvania. Tonight through Friday...Surface low pressure will move into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys overnight then into the mid Atlantic on Friday. Models continue the tend of slowing the precipitation onset time and this seems reasonable with the 700mb ridge axis over the area at 09Z and plenty of low level dry air. By 12Z light precipitation is expected across the central southern tier and parts of northeast Pennsylvania. The precipitation makes quick progress across the entire region during the morning hours as low levels saturate and lift enhances due to overrunning. A wintry mix still looks likely Friday morning with a snow/freezing rain combination most likely early but isothermal layer around 0C makes precipitation type determination difficult. Any snow or ice accretion will be minor as temperatures warm at most places by mid morning. The higher elevations of the western Catskills could see a mix through midday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s in the western Catskills to mid 40s in the lake plain. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds in for Saturday bringing drier air and seasonable temperatures. The high will slowly slide east over the weekend in response to a broad area of low pressure over the center of the country. This system will begin to spread clouds and moisture into the area later Sunday with a chance of showers breaking out late in the day over the western zones. Temperatures will remain near or above normal for Sunday so there's no risk of any mixed precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An elongated area of low pressure with northern and southern stream components will sweep in Sunday night into Monday likely bringing showers. Rain lingers into early Tuesday when a cold front sweeps through bringing wrap around rain showers and night time snow showers into early Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will build into the area later Wednesday bringing dry weather. Temperatures will begin the period above normal on Monday to start the period but fall below normal behind the cold front during the midweek. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will hold through the evening hours before a Mid-Atlantic storm spreads a wintry mix of precipitation across the region Friday morning. Ceilings and visibilities will drop into MVFR territory as a mix of rain and snow moves across the region, and pockets of freezing are likely over our NY terminals through mid to late-morning. Brief IFR ceilings and visibilities are also possible in snow showers. The precipitation will change to all rain by noon and continue into the afternoon. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Friday night...Restrictions likely in rain, though possibly beginning as a wintry mix for NY terminals Friday morning. Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Beginning VFR, then possible restrictions in showers late. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DJP