632 
FXUS64 KMAF 021734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 02/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
03/18Z. Gusty southerly winds will diminish some after sunset
with the exception of KFST and KMAF, where a modest low level
jet will keep winds sustained around 15 knots. Look for winds
to veer to the southwest by mid morning and increase in speed
around 15 knots sustained with gusts up around 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Zonal flow will be over the region today with a surface trough
developing across the higher terrain. Temperatures will warm up to
near normal with highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s
today. An upper level trough will move over the region on
Wednesday with the base of the trough moving over the CWA. This
will result in strong winds aloft mixing down to the surface.
Strong winds will be possible across the Guadalupe Mountains
Wednesday afternoon. Did not issue a High Wind Watch since wind
speeds at 700 mb are only expected to get up to 35 to 40 kts. The
surface pressure gradient is also not as tight as expected for a
high wind event. Nevertheless, gusty southwest to west winds will
be present areawide Wednesday afternoon. This downslope warming
will result in temperatures warming up into the 80s across most of
the area. The upper trough will move eastward on Thursday with
another upper trough moving over the west coast. Temperatures on
Thursday will be similar to those on Wednesday with less wind
present. A portion of the upper trough over the west coast will
begin to move over the region on Friday with a dryline developing
across the eastern CWA. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday
evening along and east of the dryline. Temperatures will mostly be
in the 80s on Friday across the area. The GFS and ECMWF differ
slightly in regards to the position of the upper trough on
Saturday, but it looks like the dryline will push east of the CWA
on Saturday with westerly winds behind it. The ECMWF lingers
behind with the upper trough on Sunday with both models moving the
upper trough east of the region on Monday. Temperatures are
generally expected to be in the 70s and 80s through the beginning
of next week with mostly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows a dirty upper-level ridge building into West Texas 
and Southeast New Mexico this morning.  As a result, temperatures 
will rebound to near-normal today.  Latest sfc obs show poor 
recovery in the Guadalupes and adjacent plains this morning, and 
consequently critical RH will be reached early.  20' winds will 
increase to 20 mph or batter in the mtns, but remain under criteria 
on the plains.  However, ERC remains in the 25-50th percentile, and 
max RFTIs of 5-6 cover only a small area centered on TXZ258, 
suggesting only elevated fire wx concerns today.  This will be 
covered w/an RFD.

Wednesday, an upper-level trough will pass through the region, 
increasing and veering winds to the west across the Guadalupes, 
adjacent plains, and even down into the Davis/Apache Mtns.  This will 
push the low-lvl thermal ridge a little further east into our area. 
After another night of poor to moderate recovery, RH should drop 
below critical levels early over the higher terrain, where 
widespread cured fuels now reside.  20' winds will increase above 
critical levels, especially higher elevations during the afternoon. 
Widespread RFTIs of 5-6 are forecast, but these could increase if 
forecasted 20' winds do.  ERCs are currently 25-50th percentile, but 
conditions over the next 24 hrs could push them into the 50-75th 
percentile. For these reasons, we'll issue a watch for SE NM and 
Areas south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       81  49  80  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         74  53  82  57 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton                  80  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 73  47  72  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          76  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          76  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           76  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         76  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           80  48  84  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 
     Corridor.

&&

$$

70/72/70