632 FXUS64 KMAF 021734 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 02/18Z aviation forecast discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through 03/18Z. Gusty southerly winds will diminish some after sunset with the exception of KFST and KMAF, where a modest low level jet will keep winds sustained around 15 knots. Look for winds to veer to the southwest by mid morning and increase in speed around 15 knots sustained with gusts up around 25 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019/ DISCUSSION... Zonal flow will be over the region today with a surface trough developing across the higher terrain. Temperatures will warm up to near normal with highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s today. An upper level trough will move over the region on Wednesday with the base of the trough moving over the CWA. This will result in strong winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Strong winds will be possible across the Guadalupe Mountains Wednesday afternoon. Did not issue a High Wind Watch since wind speeds at 700 mb are only expected to get up to 35 to 40 kts. The surface pressure gradient is also not as tight as expected for a high wind event. Nevertheless, gusty southwest to west winds will be present areawide Wednesday afternoon. This downslope warming will result in temperatures warming up into the 80s across most of the area. The upper trough will move eastward on Thursday with another upper trough moving over the west coast. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to those on Wednesday with less wind present. A portion of the upper trough over the west coast will begin to move over the region on Friday with a dryline developing across the eastern CWA. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening along and east of the dryline. Temperatures will mostly be in the 80s on Friday across the area. The GFS and ECMWF differ slightly in regards to the position of the upper trough on Saturday, but it looks like the dryline will push east of the CWA on Saturday with westerly winds behind it. The ECMWF lingers behind with the upper trough on Sunday with both models moving the upper trough east of the region on Monday. Temperatures are generally expected to be in the 70s and 80s through the beginning of next week with mostly dry conditions. FIRE WEATHER... WV imagery shows a dirty upper-level ridge building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. As a result, temperatures will rebound to near-normal today. Latest sfc obs show poor recovery in the Guadalupes and adjacent plains this morning, and consequently critical RH will be reached early. 20' winds will increase to 20 mph or batter in the mtns, but remain under criteria on the plains. However, ERC remains in the 25-50th percentile, and max RFTIs of 5-6 cover only a small area centered on TXZ258, suggesting only elevated fire wx concerns today. This will be covered w/an RFD. Wednesday, an upper-level trough will pass through the region, increasing and veering winds to the west across the Guadalupes, adjacent plains, and even down into the Davis/Apache Mtns. This will push the low-lvl thermal ridge a little further east into our area. After another night of poor to moderate recovery, RH should drop below critical levels early over the higher terrain, where widespread cured fuels now reside. 20' winds will increase above critical levels, especially higher elevations during the afternoon. Widespread RFTIs of 5-6 are forecast, but these could increase if forecasted 20' winds do. ERCs are currently 25-50th percentile, but conditions over the next 24 hrs could push them into the 50-75th percentile. For these reasons, we'll issue a watch for SE NM and Areas south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 81 49 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 80 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 73 47 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 76 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 39 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 80 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains- Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$ 70/72/70