200 
FXUS63 KTOP 310441
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Precipitation exited far eastern KS by early this afternoon as the 
mid-level trough axis pivoted east of the CWA.  Surface high 
pressure was diving southward into the central U.S. behind this 
exiting system, allowing for some scattering out of cloud cover and 
peaks of sunshine this afternoon.  Despite this scattering cloud 
cover, enough of a pressure gradient was present over the area to 
support strong CAA from the breezy northerly winds.  These winds 
will start to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient lessens 
with the center of the surface high tracking southward into western 
KS. These light northerly winds will still support some CAA tonight 
with mostly clear skies allowing for decent radiational cooling.  As 
a result, expect chilly conditions tonight with low temperatures 
plunging into the low/mid 20s.  

Models show the center of the surface high tracking just south of 
the CWA through the day tomorrow and finally shifting to the 
southeast by tomorrow evening. Winds across north central KS will 
start to shift to the west and southwest through the morning hours, 
but do not anticipate the shift to southwesterly winds across east 
central KS until late Sunday afternoon/early evening.  As a result, 
anticipate Sunday high temperatures in east central KS to only reach 
into the upper 40s with highs near 50 degrees across north central 
KS. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

A nice moderating trend is expected for the start of the work week 
as the surface high becomes stretched across the southeastern U.S., 
with southwesterly surface winds prevailing across the CWA.  As a 
result, gradual WAA will aid in boosting high temperatures Monday 
into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees and into the mid 60s by 
Wednesday.  Models continue to show a weak embedded mid-level wave 
developing within the northwesterly flow aloft and diving 
southeastward toward northeast KS late Monday night through Tuesday 
morning.  However, models have trended a bit further north with the 
tracking of this embedded wave, so only have slight to low-end 
chance PoPs for light rain skimming across far northeast KS early 
Tuesday morning.  Better chances for precipitation across the CWA 
come by the latter half of the week as the next mid-level trough 
moves into the central U.S.  Models show this mid-level trough 
moving into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progressing into 
the central U.S. by Wednesday night/Thursday.  While models are 
coming into slightly better agreement with the tracking/timing of 
this mid-level trough, there are still some discrepancies with 
regards to the tracking of the surface low and where the best 
chances for precipitation will be.  The GFS continues to show a more 
elongated area of surface low pressure that extends further north 
compared to the ECMWF, while the ECMWF keeps the center of the low 
further south near the TX/OK border.  The GFS would support higher 
QPF amounts with better instability in place over the CWA Wednesday 
night into Thursday morning as a cold front tracks eastward over the 
area.  In contrast, the ECMWF has the better QPF and instability 
focused across southeastern KS with very limited thunderstorm 
potential over the CWA.  At this time, the best chances for rain 
look to be Wednesday into Thursday before this system exits to the 
east Thursday into Thursday evening.  Slightly cooler conditions are 
expected on Thursday as northerly winds return on the back-side of 
this exiting surface low.  However, models do not show much in the 
way of CAA, so only expect high temperatures to drop into the upper 
50s/low 60s.  Dry and mild conditions are expected Friday with high 
temperatures rising back into the mid 60s. Another mid-level trough 
may track into the Central and Southern Plains by late Friday night 
into Saturday with some scattered rain showers possible.  However, 
there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding how far north the 
better Gulf of Mexico moisture will extend into the area to support 
this scattered precipitation.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Surface winds have become light with high pressure moving into
northern Kansas. Skies will be clear through the TAF period and
winds will remain light out of a northerly direction tonight.
Winds will back to a westerly direction by early afternoon Sunday
and eventually to a southerly direction Sunday evening as the
center of the surface high pressure system pushes east of the 
area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Teefey