200 FXUS63 KTOP 310441 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Precipitation exited far eastern KS by early this afternoon as the mid-level trough axis pivoted east of the CWA. Surface high pressure was diving southward into the central U.S. behind this exiting system, allowing for some scattering out of cloud cover and peaks of sunshine this afternoon. Despite this scattering cloud cover, enough of a pressure gradient was present over the area to support strong CAA from the breezy northerly winds. These winds will start to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient lessens with the center of the surface high tracking southward into western KS. These light northerly winds will still support some CAA tonight with mostly clear skies allowing for decent radiational cooling. As a result, expect chilly conditions tonight with low temperatures plunging into the low/mid 20s. Models show the center of the surface high tracking just south of the CWA through the day tomorrow and finally shifting to the southeast by tomorrow evening. Winds across north central KS will start to shift to the west and southwest through the morning hours, but do not anticipate the shift to southwesterly winds across east central KS until late Sunday afternoon/early evening. As a result, anticipate Sunday high temperatures in east central KS to only reach into the upper 40s with highs near 50 degrees across north central KS. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 A nice moderating trend is expected for the start of the work week as the surface high becomes stretched across the southeastern U.S., with southwesterly surface winds prevailing across the CWA. As a result, gradual WAA will aid in boosting high temperatures Monday into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees and into the mid 60s by Wednesday. Models continue to show a weak embedded mid-level wave developing within the northwesterly flow aloft and diving southeastward toward northeast KS late Monday night through Tuesday morning. However, models have trended a bit further north with the tracking of this embedded wave, so only have slight to low-end chance PoPs for light rain skimming across far northeast KS early Tuesday morning. Better chances for precipitation across the CWA come by the latter half of the week as the next mid-level trough moves into the central U.S. Models show this mid-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progressing into the central U.S. by Wednesday night/Thursday. While models are coming into slightly better agreement with the tracking/timing of this mid-level trough, there are still some discrepancies with regards to the tracking of the surface low and where the best chances for precipitation will be. The GFS continues to show a more elongated area of surface low pressure that extends further north compared to the ECMWF, while the ECMWF keeps the center of the low further south near the TX/OK border. The GFS would support higher QPF amounts with better instability in place over the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front tracks eastward over the area. In contrast, the ECMWF has the better QPF and instability focused across southeastern KS with very limited thunderstorm potential over the CWA. At this time, the best chances for rain look to be Wednesday into Thursday before this system exits to the east Thursday into Thursday evening. Slightly cooler conditions are expected on Thursday as northerly winds return on the back-side of this exiting surface low. However, models do not show much in the way of CAA, so only expect high temperatures to drop into the upper 50s/low 60s. Dry and mild conditions are expected Friday with high temperatures rising back into the mid 60s. Another mid-level trough may track into the Central and Southern Plains by late Friday night into Saturday with some scattered rain showers possible. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding how far north the better Gulf of Mexico moisture will extend into the area to support this scattered precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Surface winds have become light with high pressure moving into northern Kansas. Skies will be clear through the TAF period and winds will remain light out of a northerly direction tonight. Winds will back to a westerly direction by early afternoon Sunday and eventually to a southerly direction Sunday evening as the center of the surface high pressure system pushes east of the area. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Teefey