532 
FXUS64 KMOB 241807 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
107 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions through about 25.11z followed by a
short period of IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through about
25.13z then mostly VFR conditions through 25.18z. Also expect 
increasing high clouds late tonight through 25.18z. Winds will be
southeast at 8 to 12 knots with slightly higher gusts this 
afternoon and early this evening becoming light and variable later
this evening, overnight and early Mon morning, then becoming 
southwest at 10 to 15 knots with slightly higher gusts from about 
25.15z through 25.18z. 32/ee 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR conditions in patchy fog this morning will
become VFR later this morning and continue through the remainder
of the period. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Sfc high pressure will 
continue to shift eastward today as a cold front approaches from 
the west. This will maintain a light southerly flow across the 
area, bringing increasing moisture northward across the region. 
Dry conditions will continue today under mostly sunny skies with 
temps warming into the upper 70s to around 80. Clouds will 
increase late tonight with a slight chance for showers across 
extreme northwest zones after midnight as the front approaches the
area. Lows will be warmer tonight, in the low to mid 50s inland 
to upper 50s along the coast. The increasing low level moisture 
will lead to patchy fog development after midnight. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A cold front
approaching from the northwest will push into Southeast MS
and our northern Alabama counties Monday afternoon. A band
of showers with some embedded thunderstorms should form along
and ahead of the front as large scale forcing for ascent and 
moderate instability will be available. The main dynamics and
forcing will remain north of our area and the best coverage
and strongest storms tor our area should form over SE MS and AL 
generally along and north of HWY 84. The best forcing and vertical
shear profiles will reside over this area providing a marginal 
risk of severe thunderstorm activity. Low WBZ heights of 9 to 10 
thousand feet, strong vertical shear and steeper mid-upper level 
lapse rates will create the potential of quarter size hail 
production in the stronger storms and strong to possibly severe 
wind gusts. Forcing decreases and the frontal system weakens as it
pushes southeastward and then off the coast around midnight. 
Forecasted precipitation probabilities decrease from likely over 
the northern interior counties of SE MS and AL to chance to slight
chance closer to the coast. Some light post frontal rain 
showers/rain will linger following frontal passage. 

Monday high temperatures will again trend higher than normal
across most of the region. In the wake of the cold frontal
passage Monday night, a cool and dry pattern sets up over the 
region. Tuesday's high temperatures are projected to top out in 
the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday night's low temperatures fall 
into the low to mid 40s over interior locations and mid to upper 
40s closer to the coast to low 50s along the immediate coast.

ECMWF and the GFS both project another strong upper level
shortwave trough to push through the North Central Gulf Coast 
region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Suspect lower level, post
frontal airmass will be to dry and stable to allow for the 
potential of any measurable precipitation.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Deep layer ridging
builds into the region Wednesday providing dry and mild weather
conditions for the remainder of the work week. Warmer conditions 
are expected Friday and Saturday as southerly return flow develops
in advance of a developing upstream frontal system. This system 
will bring the return of low end rain chances for Saturday. /08

MARINE...A light onshore flow is expected through early
Monday as a ridge of high pressure to the north of the marine area 
early this evening shifts east through Monday. Westerly winds 
increase and seas build on Monday in response to a cold front 
approaching from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move 
across the marine area Monday night into early Tuesday, bringing a 
moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow through early 
Wednesday. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob