532 FXUS64 KMOB 241807 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 107 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions through about 25.11z followed by a short period of IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through about 25.13z then mostly VFR conditions through 25.18z. Also expect increasing high clouds late tonight through 25.18z. Winds will be southeast at 8 to 12 knots with slightly higher gusts this afternoon and early this evening becoming light and variable later this evening, overnight and early Mon morning, then becoming southwest at 10 to 15 knots with slightly higher gusts from about 25.15z through 25.18z. 32/ee && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 12Z issuance...MVFR conditions in patchy fog this morning will become VFR later this morning and continue through the remainder of the period. /13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Sfc high pressure will continue to shift eastward today as a cold front approaches from the west. This will maintain a light southerly flow across the area, bringing increasing moisture northward across the region. Dry conditions will continue today under mostly sunny skies with temps warming into the upper 70s to around 80. Clouds will increase late tonight with a slight chance for showers across extreme northwest zones after midnight as the front approaches the area. Lows will be warmer tonight, in the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s along the coast. The increasing low level moisture will lead to patchy fog development after midnight. /13 SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A cold front approaching from the northwest will push into Southeast MS and our northern Alabama counties Monday afternoon. A band of showers with some embedded thunderstorms should form along and ahead of the front as large scale forcing for ascent and moderate instability will be available. The main dynamics and forcing will remain north of our area and the best coverage and strongest storms tor our area should form over SE MS and AL generally along and north of HWY 84. The best forcing and vertical shear profiles will reside over this area providing a marginal risk of severe thunderstorm activity. Low WBZ heights of 9 to 10 thousand feet, strong vertical shear and steeper mid-upper level lapse rates will create the potential of quarter size hail production in the stronger storms and strong to possibly severe wind gusts. Forcing decreases and the frontal system weakens as it pushes southeastward and then off the coast around midnight. Forecasted precipitation probabilities decrease from likely over the northern interior counties of SE MS and AL to chance to slight chance closer to the coast. Some light post frontal rain showers/rain will linger following frontal passage. Monday high temperatures will again trend higher than normal across most of the region. In the wake of the cold frontal passage Monday night, a cool and dry pattern sets up over the region. Tuesday's high temperatures are projected to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday night's low temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s over interior locations and mid to upper 40s closer to the coast to low 50s along the immediate coast. ECMWF and the GFS both project another strong upper level shortwave trough to push through the North Central Gulf Coast region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Suspect lower level, post frontal airmass will be to dry and stable to allow for the potential of any measurable precipitation. LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Deep layer ridging builds into the region Wednesday providing dry and mild weather conditions for the remainder of the work week. Warmer conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as southerly return flow develops in advance of a developing upstream frontal system. This system will bring the return of low end rain chances for Saturday. /08 MARINE...A light onshore flow is expected through early Monday as a ridge of high pressure to the north of the marine area early this evening shifts east through Monday. Westerly winds increase and seas build on Monday in response to a cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area Monday night into early Tuesday, bringing a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow through early Wednesday. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob