478 
FXUS63 KIND 241322
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Rain will overspread central Indiana today as a warm front
and associated low pressure system enter the region. As forcing
increases this evening with the approaching low, isolated thunder
will also be possible.  As the system moves eastward, rain chances 
will diminish from west to east on Monday with just some lingering
showers over the eastern counties Monday afternoon. After that, dry
conditions will then be the norm through mid-week until a series
of upper waves brings additional rain chances late in the
week/next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 922 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Forecast is good shape. Tweaked hourly PoPs to match latest radar 
trends, but overall forecast still looks good. Will continue to 
monitor and make any other adjustments as needed.

Previous discussion follows...


The main focus of the near term will be rain and thunderstorm
chances.

Current radar imagery shows rain to be very spotty at best.
However, anticipate rain showers to become more widespread by mid
to late morning as a warm front moves closer from the southwest.
Current IR Sat imagery shows the associated low centered over
northwest Missouri with the best moisture over southern
Missouri/northern Arkansas. But, as that warm front pushes that 
moisture northeastward, rain chances will increase across central 
Indiana. As a result, trended a little above the latest blended 
initialization for pops for today and tonight. In addition, 
confidence has increased to moderate for thunderstorms this 
evening into early tonight (mainly south) where a low level jet 
will enhance forcing. Meanwhile, temperatures today will top off 
in the upper 40s (north) to mid 50s (south).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Any thunderstorm threat this evening should quickly taper off by
Mon 06Z as both the surface low and low level jet move
east/southeastward. At that point, only rain showers will continue
into Monday morning.  

After a few lingering showers over the eastern counties on Tuesday
afternoon, dry conditions will then return to the entire forecast
area through the remainder of the short term period as high 
pressure strengthens over the Midwest. 

Temperatures will be near normal tonight, but strong radiational
cooling with the area of high pressure will result in below normal
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs will only top
off in the mid 40s to low 50s with overnight lows dipping into the
20s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Dry conditions will be in place to start the long term with surface 
high pressure over the east coast and an upper ridge over the 
central U.S. As the ridge flattens some and moves off to the east, a 
series of upper waves will move through the southwesterly flow and 
bring chances for rain to central Indiana. The ECM and GFS are 
showing some timing and strength differences particularly with the 
upper pattern so confidence on the start of rain chances is lower 
than average, however confidence in rain chances increases getting 
closer to the weekend. High temperatures should climb into the 60s 
Thursday and Friday before falling back below normal for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 241200z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Flying conditions will deteriorate today as rain overspreads the
sites. After starting out VFR, MVFR ceilings will arrive starting
after around 18z. A drop to IFR is possible starting after about
3z or so. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and evening, but probabilities at any one location are 
low enough to leave out of the TAFs at this time. Winds out of the
southeast at 5 to 10 kts can be expected through the day, changing
to northeasterly overnight, with gusts developing Monday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50 
SHORT TERM...TDUD 
LONG TERM....CP 
AVIATION...CP