478 FXUS63 KIND 241322 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 922 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Rain will overspread central Indiana today as a warm front and associated low pressure system enter the region. As forcing increases this evening with the approaching low, isolated thunder will also be possible. As the system moves eastward, rain chances will diminish from west to east on Monday with just some lingering showers over the eastern counties Monday afternoon. After that, dry conditions will then be the norm through mid-week until a series of upper waves brings additional rain chances late in the week/next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 922 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Forecast is good shape. Tweaked hourly PoPs to match latest radar trends, but overall forecast still looks good. Will continue to monitor and make any other adjustments as needed. Previous discussion follows... The main focus of the near term will be rain and thunderstorm chances. Current radar imagery shows rain to be very spotty at best. However, anticipate rain showers to become more widespread by mid to late morning as a warm front moves closer from the southwest. Current IR Sat imagery shows the associated low centered over northwest Missouri with the best moisture over southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. But, as that warm front pushes that moisture northeastward, rain chances will increase across central Indiana. As a result, trended a little above the latest blended initialization for pops for today and tonight. In addition, confidence has increased to moderate for thunderstorms this evening into early tonight (mainly south) where a low level jet will enhance forcing. Meanwhile, temperatures today will top off in the upper 40s (north) to mid 50s (south). && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Any thunderstorm threat this evening should quickly taper off by Mon 06Z as both the surface low and low level jet move east/southeastward. At that point, only rain showers will continue into Monday morning. After a few lingering showers over the eastern counties on Tuesday afternoon, dry conditions will then return to the entire forecast area through the remainder of the short term period as high pressure strengthens over the Midwest. Temperatures will be near normal tonight, but strong radiational cooling with the area of high pressure will result in below normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs will only top off in the mid 40s to low 50s with overnight lows dipping into the 20s both nights. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Dry conditions will be in place to start the long term with surface high pressure over the east coast and an upper ridge over the central U.S. As the ridge flattens some and moves off to the east, a series of upper waves will move through the southwesterly flow and bring chances for rain to central Indiana. The ECM and GFS are showing some timing and strength differences particularly with the upper pattern so confidence on the start of rain chances is lower than average, however confidence in rain chances increases getting closer to the weekend. High temperatures should climb into the 60s Thursday and Friday before falling back below normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 241200z TAF issuance/... Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Flying conditions will deteriorate today as rain overspreads the sites. After starting out VFR, MVFR ceilings will arrive starting after around 18z. A drop to IFR is possible starting after about 3z or so. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, but probabilities at any one location are low enough to leave out of the TAFs at this time. Winds out of the southeast at 5 to 10 kts can be expected through the day, changing to northeasterly overnight, with gusts developing Monday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD/50 SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP