027 
FXUS64 KFWD 162336
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Benign aviation weather will persist through the respective TAF
periods. VFR conditions will be the rule. A flattening shortwave
trough may yield a SCT/BKN deck around 100 tonight at KACT, but 
CIGs should remain at the mid levels or higher. There is a small 
chance this deck infiltrates Metroplex sites over the next several
hours, but even if it does, CIGs will not fall below the mid 
levels.

Winds are forecast to remain below 10 kt over the next 24-30
hours. Generally north to northeast directions are expected
tonight, before winds become light and variable around daybreak or
shortly thereafter. More of an easterly component may develop by
Sunday afternoon/evening in response to the center of a surface
ridge sliding towards the Arklatex. Regardless, winds should 
remain quite light.

Picca

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

Surface high pressure is settling in across the region, and the
relaxing pressure gradient has resulted in much lighter winds
across North and Central Texas today. A reservoir of mid and
high-level moisture remains to our south, and some of this will
slosh northward this evening and overnight as a series of
additional shortwaves pinwheel through the southwesterly flow 
aloft. Some guidance steepens lapse rates sufficiently in response
to the modestly enhanced ascent to result in a sliver of elevated
instability. However, like yesterday, dry air will remain 
plentiful under 700 mb, greatly limiting the potential for 
precipitation across Central Texas. We'll just advertise some 
silent 5-10% PoPs across our far southeastern counties to account 
for any over-achieving echoes later this evening. 

A pool of higher mid-level moisture will remain across our far
western/southwestern zones on Sunday, but in general, mostly sunny
to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated as we close out the
weekend. We should be able to add a couple degrees to our highs,
with most locales rising into the low to mid 60s. Tranquil and
cool weather will continue into Sunday night. 

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/
/Monday Through Friday/

Generally a mostly quiet week is expected through Thursday, as
temperatures moderate back into the 60s and even the lower 70s
across especially Central Texas by Wednesday and after. The cool
surface ridge of high pressure and split flow that has given us
the mostly sunny and breezy conditions this weekend will become
fairly fast and zonal aloft the first half of the week. This flow
will allow for surface pressures off the Colorado Lee to fall as
the aformentioned surface high shifts across the Southeast U.S. 
through Tuesday. The resulting southeast surface winds between 
10-15 mph each day will allow for some northward return of very 
modified Gulf moisture, but it should be fairly surface-based and 
shallow in nature, as any significant and elevated warm advection 
holds off until late in the week. 

A strong shortwave will move from Northern Mexico and Big Bend 
area Monday night and across mainly Central and South Texas and 
toward the Northwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. This will provide 
a canopy of mid-high clouds from I-20/30 southward through the 
day, which may limit warming across this area compared to areas 
further north on Tuesday. I'm not expecting any measurable 
rainfall from this system, as the 925mb-500mb column will remain 
relatively dry. That said, couldn't rule out some virga or a 
sprinkle or two across Central Texas on Tuesday. Highs each day 
should manage into the mid 60s most areas. This shortwave will
exit east of the area Tuesday night with clearing and seasonably
cool conditions. 

An even stronger shortwave within the northern jet stream is 
forecast to dive southeast from the Northern/Central Plains 
Tuesday night and into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. The 
amplitude and strength of this disturbance are quite variable 
amongst the models. The one certainty is now we should see an 
increase of elevated moisture across our northern counties between
midnight and noon Wednesday. In addition, there is some potential
of a brief passage of a cool front along and north of I-20, 
though models differ on how far south this cold front moves before
stalling Wednesday afternoon. Once again, moisture looks fairly 
elevated and shallow in nature, so at most expect some scattered 
sprinkles north along and north of the I-20/30 corridors, but 
nothing measurable due to the continued dry low-mid level 
environment. 

The stalled cold front will quickly move back northward as a warm
front Thursday, as a shortwave upper ridge amplifies right over 
the Southern plains in wake of the previous shortwave and in 
advance of a more deep and vigorous upper low organizing over the 
Desert Southwest states. This will bring us some of the warmest 
weather of the week, as subsidence combines with return southerly 
winds for more spring-like temperatures Thursday-Friday. Plentiful
sunshine Thursday will be replaced by increasing clouds and low 
level warm advection by Friday. 

Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms arrive 
across areas especially west of I-35/35W on Friday, as a lead 
energy from the approaching Southwest U.S. system ejects eastward
across West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles on later 
Friday into Friday night. The Canadian and European models 
continued to be deeper and a little slower than the slightly more 
progressive GFS solution. Regardless, I will continue to show the 
better chances across the west with any thunderstorms expected to 
be elevated in nature with SBCAPE being negligible considering dew
point temperatures still in the upper 40s to lower 50s. MUCAPE is
is also forecast to be quite negligible Friday-Friday Night, 
however steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7 deg C/km 
should combine with effective bulk shear 30 knots+ for at least a 
few stronger storms containing potentially small hail during the 
end of the extended period, especially Friday night. 

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  63  41  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                40  62  39  67  46 /   5   0   0   0   5 
Paris               38  63  40  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              35  62  37  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            36  62  38  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              42  65  43  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             38  62  39  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           41  63  42  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Temple              39  62  40  67  45 /  10   0   0   0   5 
Mineral Wells       35  62  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

11/30