027 FXUS64 KFWD 162336 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ Benign aviation weather will persist through the respective TAF periods. VFR conditions will be the rule. A flattening shortwave trough may yield a SCT/BKN deck around 100 tonight at KACT, but CIGs should remain at the mid levels or higher. There is a small chance this deck infiltrates Metroplex sites over the next several hours, but even if it does, CIGs will not fall below the mid levels. Winds are forecast to remain below 10 kt over the next 24-30 hours. Generally north to northeast directions are expected tonight, before winds become light and variable around daybreak or shortly thereafter. More of an easterly component may develop by Sunday afternoon/evening in response to the center of a surface ridge sliding towards the Arklatex. Regardless, winds should remain quite light. Picca && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/ /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Surface high pressure is settling in across the region, and the relaxing pressure gradient has resulted in much lighter winds across North and Central Texas today. A reservoir of mid and high-level moisture remains to our south, and some of this will slosh northward this evening and overnight as a series of additional shortwaves pinwheel through the southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance steepens lapse rates sufficiently in response to the modestly enhanced ascent to result in a sliver of elevated instability. However, like yesterday, dry air will remain plentiful under 700 mb, greatly limiting the potential for precipitation across Central Texas. We'll just advertise some silent 5-10% PoPs across our far southeastern counties to account for any over-achieving echoes later this evening. A pool of higher mid-level moisture will remain across our far western/southwestern zones on Sunday, but in general, mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated as we close out the weekend. We should be able to add a couple degrees to our highs, with most locales rising into the low to mid 60s. Tranquil and cool weather will continue into Sunday night. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/ /Monday Through Friday/ Generally a mostly quiet week is expected through Thursday, as temperatures moderate back into the 60s and even the lower 70s across especially Central Texas by Wednesday and after. The cool surface ridge of high pressure and split flow that has given us the mostly sunny and breezy conditions this weekend will become fairly fast and zonal aloft the first half of the week. This flow will allow for surface pressures off the Colorado Lee to fall as the aformentioned surface high shifts across the Southeast U.S. through Tuesday. The resulting southeast surface winds between 10-15 mph each day will allow for some northward return of very modified Gulf moisture, but it should be fairly surface-based and shallow in nature, as any significant and elevated warm advection holds off until late in the week. A strong shortwave will move from Northern Mexico and Big Bend area Monday night and across mainly Central and South Texas and toward the Northwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. This will provide a canopy of mid-high clouds from I-20/30 southward through the day, which may limit warming across this area compared to areas further north on Tuesday. I'm not expecting any measurable rainfall from this system, as the 925mb-500mb column will remain relatively dry. That said, couldn't rule out some virga or a sprinkle or two across Central Texas on Tuesday. Highs each day should manage into the mid 60s most areas. This shortwave will exit east of the area Tuesday night with clearing and seasonably cool conditions. An even stronger shortwave within the northern jet stream is forecast to dive southeast from the Northern/Central Plains Tuesday night and into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. The amplitude and strength of this disturbance are quite variable amongst the models. The one certainty is now we should see an increase of elevated moisture across our northern counties between midnight and noon Wednesday. In addition, there is some potential of a brief passage of a cool front along and north of I-20, though models differ on how far south this cold front moves before stalling Wednesday afternoon. Once again, moisture looks fairly elevated and shallow in nature, so at most expect some scattered sprinkles north along and north of the I-20/30 corridors, but nothing measurable due to the continued dry low-mid level environment. The stalled cold front will quickly move back northward as a warm front Thursday, as a shortwave upper ridge amplifies right over the Southern plains in wake of the previous shortwave and in advance of a more deep and vigorous upper low organizing over the Desert Southwest states. This will bring us some of the warmest weather of the week, as subsidence combines with return southerly winds for more spring-like temperatures Thursday-Friday. Plentiful sunshine Thursday will be replaced by increasing clouds and low level warm advection by Friday. Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms arrive across areas especially west of I-35/35W on Friday, as a lead energy from the approaching Southwest U.S. system ejects eastward across West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles on later Friday into Friday night. The Canadian and European models continued to be deeper and a little slower than the slightly more progressive GFS solution. Regardless, I will continue to show the better chances across the west with any thunderstorms expected to be elevated in nature with SBCAPE being negligible considering dew point temperatures still in the upper 40s to lower 50s. MUCAPE is is also forecast to be quite negligible Friday-Friday Night, however steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7 deg C/km should combine with effective bulk shear 30 knots+ for at least a few stronger storms containing potentially small hail during the end of the extended period, especially Friday night. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 63 41 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 40 62 39 67 46 / 5 0 0 0 5 Paris 38 63 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 35 62 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 36 62 38 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 42 65 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 38 62 39 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 41 63 42 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 39 62 40 67 45 / 10 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 35 62 37 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 11/30