397 
FXUS63 KMPX 130344
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1044 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below
 
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Regional radar and satellite imagery indicated a broad area of 
showers, with embedded heavier showers, based on the enhancement of 
the afternoon satellite image over Iowa/Minnesota. This enhanced 
area was caused by the entrance region of a 250mb jet streak across 
far southern Minnesota early this afternoon. This jet, and an 
increasing area of isentropic lift along and ahead of this feature, 
will continue to generate showers across south central/southeast 
Minnesota, and into portions of east central Minnesota, and west 
central Wisconsin, through the early evening. As quickly as this 
feature moves across the area, it will quickly move out of the area 
by early/mid evening in west central Wisconsin. Behind this feature, 
low clouds, fog and occasional drizzle will follow. Areas of dense 
fog is also possible, especially where the heavier rainfall occurs 
this afternoon, and where the wind speeds lower to 6 mph or less. 
There is an area of drying in west central/central Minnesota 
overnight in response to the exiting feature, but with the amount of 
melting today, I wouldn't be surprised to see areas of fog, locally 
dense in this area also. This is also where the winds will be 
lighter overnight. 

As said before, overnight, will see areas of fog, and occasional 
drizzle, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle in west central 
Minnesota where temperatures will cool to near the freezing mark. By 
mid/late morning, the main system that is currently in the 
southwestern CONUS, will move out into the Plains, and develop a 
large are of precipitation over the central Plains by sunrise.  By 
late morning, this area will have spread across most of central and 
southern Minnesota. There is still a chance of mixed precipitation 
in the form of sleet or freezing drizzle/rain in west central 
Minnesota around sunrise, but not anticipating anything significant 
to impact travel. Other areas will have a good soaking rain for most 
of Wednesday, and into Wednesday night. The heaviest rainfall will 
occur in west central/central Minnesota as the main system begins to 
pivot across the Plains, and into the Upper Midwest. The heavy 
rainfall, combined with the snow cover and melting, will lead to low 
lying flooding, especially in urban areas that have drainage 
problems. Temperatures will likely stay above freezing through late 
Wednesday night before the cold front moves across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Wednesday's system will push off to the north and east on
Thursday, with precipitation transitioning to snow as colder air
works into the region from the west. The system will be weakening
as it moves away from the area, so additional precipitation
amounts (in the form of snow) are expected to be light. We will,
however, have gusty winds in to Thursday evening, with the
potential for some blowing snow. Cooler temperatures and dry
weather will build into the region for Friday through the 
weekend, with the next system of any consequence moving through on
Tuesday. This shortwave trough looks to be weakening as it drops
southeast through the central US, but could give some light snow
to the area as it pushes by to our southwest. A shift in the large
scale pattern looks to take place during the second half of the
week, with significant ridging building to our west and northwest,
and much warmer temperatures potentially moving in by the end of 
the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Widespread stratus will prevail through the period, with
predominant LIFR ceilings. Visibilities are expected to become 
widespread LIFR tonight as well, with pockets of VLIFR, as areas 
of dense fog develop along. Not much improvement is expected on 
Wednesday until late when east/southeast winds become gusty. 
Drizzle will be possible again tonight, with more widespread rain 
moving in Wednesday afternoon. 

KMSP...
Prevalent LIFR conditions are expected with fog and occasional
drizzle through at least Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...IFR with -RA bcmg -SN late. Wind NE 10 kts bcmg NW at 20-30 kts.
Fri...VFR. MVFR cigs possible -SN. Wind NW 15G25kt. 
Sat...VFR. Wind WSW 10 kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for 
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for 
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening 
     for MNZ047-054>056-064-065-067-073>077-082-083.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening 
     for MNZ041>045-048>053-057>063-066-068>070.

     Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for 
     MNZ084-085-091>093.

     Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Friday morning for 
     MNZ078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT 
AVIATION...LS