397 FXUS63 KMPX 130344 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1044 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 .UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Regional radar and satellite imagery indicated a broad area of showers, with embedded heavier showers, based on the enhancement of the afternoon satellite image over Iowa/Minnesota. This enhanced area was caused by the entrance region of a 250mb jet streak across far southern Minnesota early this afternoon. This jet, and an increasing area of isentropic lift along and ahead of this feature, will continue to generate showers across south central/southeast Minnesota, and into portions of east central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin, through the early evening. As quickly as this feature moves across the area, it will quickly move out of the area by early/mid evening in west central Wisconsin. Behind this feature, low clouds, fog and occasional drizzle will follow. Areas of dense fog is also possible, especially where the heavier rainfall occurs this afternoon, and where the wind speeds lower to 6 mph or less. There is an area of drying in west central/central Minnesota overnight in response to the exiting feature, but with the amount of melting today, I wouldn't be surprised to see areas of fog, locally dense in this area also. This is also where the winds will be lighter overnight. As said before, overnight, will see areas of fog, and occasional drizzle, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle in west central Minnesota where temperatures will cool to near the freezing mark. By mid/late morning, the main system that is currently in the southwestern CONUS, will move out into the Plains, and develop a large are of precipitation over the central Plains by sunrise. By late morning, this area will have spread across most of central and southern Minnesota. There is still a chance of mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing drizzle/rain in west central Minnesota around sunrise, but not anticipating anything significant to impact travel. Other areas will have a good soaking rain for most of Wednesday, and into Wednesday night. The heaviest rainfall will occur in west central/central Minnesota as the main system begins to pivot across the Plains, and into the Upper Midwest. The heavy rainfall, combined with the snow cover and melting, will lead to low lying flooding, especially in urban areas that have drainage problems. Temperatures will likely stay above freezing through late Wednesday night before the cold front moves across the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Wednesday's system will push off to the north and east on Thursday, with precipitation transitioning to snow as colder air works into the region from the west. The system will be weakening as it moves away from the area, so additional precipitation amounts (in the form of snow) are expected to be light. We will, however, have gusty winds in to Thursday evening, with the potential for some blowing snow. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will build into the region for Friday through the weekend, with the next system of any consequence moving through on Tuesday. This shortwave trough looks to be weakening as it drops southeast through the central US, but could give some light snow to the area as it pushes by to our southwest. A shift in the large scale pattern looks to take place during the second half of the week, with significant ridging building to our west and northwest, and much warmer temperatures potentially moving in by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Widespread stratus will prevail through the period, with predominant LIFR ceilings. Visibilities are expected to become widespread LIFR tonight as well, with pockets of VLIFR, as areas of dense fog develop along. Not much improvement is expected on Wednesday until late when east/southeast winds become gusty. Drizzle will be possible again tonight, with more widespread rain moving in Wednesday afternoon. KMSP... Prevalent LIFR conditions are expected with fog and occasional drizzle through at least Wednesday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...IFR with -RA bcmg -SN late. Wind NE 10 kts bcmg NW at 20-30 kts. Fri...VFR. MVFR cigs possible -SN. Wind NW 15G25kt. Sat...VFR. Wind WSW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for WIZ014>016-023>028. Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ014>016-023>028. MN...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for MNZ047-054>056-064-065-067-073>077-082-083. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ041>045- 047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093. Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for MNZ041>045-048>053-057>063-066-068>070. Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for MNZ084-085-091>093. Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Friday morning for MNZ078. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...LS