469 
FXUS64 KAMA 091010
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
410 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...

Surface low moving east across western Kansas with the Pacific cold 
front moving east across the Panhandles. High winds have accompanied 
the front, mainly across the southern half of the Texas Panhandle, 
and expect winds to remain gusty this morning and then gradually 
diminish this afternoon into early this evening. Winds expected to 
veer from the west and northwest this morning and then around to the 
north and northeast from northeast to southwest across the 
Panhandles by this evening as a reinforcing surge pushes through the 
forecast area. Much cooler tonight as a moist upslope surface flow 
develops.

Schneider

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
East and southeast post-frontal winds will hold Sunday high 
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal.  Moist southeast 
winds continue Sunday night, with a slight chance of showers 
across southeast sections. 

Main story continues to be potential for widespread rains Monday
through Tuesday night.  Models agree that closed mid-level low 
will dig offshore of southern California on Monday, setting up a 
strong moist southwest flow across the Texas and Oklahoma 
Panhandles.  The closed low comes ashore south of the border 
Monday night, tracking across southern Arizona on Tuesday.  Main 
dynamics from this system expected to cross forecast area Tuesday 
night and early Wednesday.  Gulf moisture expected to be 
replenished by Monday afternoon.  As instability increases, 
threat for thunder will increase Monday night through Tuesday 
night.  Highly sheared environment expected to be in place, but 
widespread clouds and cool conditions expected to keep severe 
threat low.  Locally heavy rains may occur however, possibly 
leading to flooding issues. 

By Wednesday, dynamic system lifts northeast of area, with chances
for light precipitation continuing over mainly northern sections.
Associated Pacific front passes with windy west winds.  Light
precipitation, including the potential for light snow, will be 
possible Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly across northwest and
western sections as a trailing disturbance moves through. 

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions expected today across all of the 
Panhandles between around 10 AM to 12 PM until 6 PM as the west and 
northwest 20 foot winds continue around 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 
40 mph and minimum humidities fall into the 13 to 25 percent range. 
Max RFTIs are forecast to be in the 1 to 3 range today over all of 
the Panhandles.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  30  51  34  51 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Beaver OK                  60  24  49  30  48 /   5   0   0  10  50 
Boise City OK              60  21  50  28  52 /   0   0   0   5  60 
Borger TX                  67  30  53  35  52 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Boys Ranch TX              65  31  53  34  54 /   0   0   0  10  70 
Canyon TX                  65  30  52  34  52 /   0   0   0  10  70 
Clarendon TX               66  31  50  35  49 /   0   0   0  20  70 
Dalhart TX                 63  24  52  31  53 /   0   0   0   5  70 
Guymon OK                  61  24  51  30  50 /   5   0   0   5  50 
Hereford TX                65  31  53  35  53 /   0   0   0  10  70 
Lipscomb TX                63  28  50  33  49 /   5   0   0  10  60 
Pampa TX                   66  28  50  33  50 /   5   0   0  10  60 
Shamrock TX                67  29  51  36  50 /   5   0   0  20  60 
Wellington TX              68  32  52  37  51 /   5   0   5  20  70 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/03