209 
FXUS61 KBGM 080553
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1253 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a low pressure system tracking 
through the Mid-Atlantic states. Light snow is possible in 
northeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. A strong 
low pressure system will move through Saturday night and Sunday, 
bringing a round of mixed precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
830 PM update...
Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario continues to appear cellular
and somewhat disorganized. We feel comfortable sticking to our
forecast of 1-2 inches of snow accumulation overnight across
northwestern sections of Oneida County.

Temperatures over interior sections of the Susquehanna Region
fell off faster than expected this evening. We adjusted minimum
temperatures lower in some of the sheltered valley locations
through Friday morning. Most areas will bottom out in the single
digits, but a few readings around zero are likely in the
normally colder valleys of Upstate NY.

4 PM update...
Enough instability is present late this afternoon for some 
scattered light snow showers. These should decrease in coverage 
with the loss of daytime heating. However, a good model 
consensus is present with another band of snow showers forming 
just north of the Thruway for a time this evening. Snow chances 
were increased to reflect this trend. 

With the high pressure system building into the region the 
window for this band looks rather short this evening. The 
window looks rather short as the instability has to decrease 
first which will take into the early evening and then the 
changing wind direction and decrease in speed due to the high 
will become hostile for lake effect snow. QPF looks fairly 
light this evening in Oneida county and just north of Syracuse.
However, higher ratios near 20:1 could still lead to a few 
spots getting a inch or so of snowfall. 

Further south across the remainder of the region, the main
concern will be the potential for single digit lows once again.
Some clearing is likely to result in favorable conditions for
radiational cooling. Combined with a residual snow cover this
forecast undercut model guidance by a couple of degrees with the
lows. 

High pressure will build into the region for a time tomorrow.
This will result in just some high clouds for most of the
region. A weak area of low pressure will move through the Mid-
Atlantic region. Enough moisture may be lifted in the Poconos
for a brief period of very light snow. However, the majority of
the models have trended this system even further south reducing
snow chances even further. Highs should get into the 30's 
tomorrow as the airmass modifies some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
347 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next round 
of wintry mix Saturday evening into early Sunday 
morning...changing to all rain or drizzle on Sunday...with a 
brief period of warmer temperatures on Sunday as well.

Conditions will be dry and on the cool side Friday night into 
Saturday morning with a wedge of high pressure at the surface 
keeping sky conditions mostly clear and winds light...which will  
allow for decent raditional cooling...and surface temperatures 
into the teens. Weather will remain quiet through most of the 
day Saturday as the high over Quebec shifts slowly to the east.

The basic idea of the forecast Saturday night remains mostly the  
same...with a large area of low pressure moving newd through the
Great Lakes and a warm front extending to the east, sweeping 
north from the mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley region through the 
Northeast. This feature should be moving at a fairly good 
clip...with precip amts generally less than a half inch. The 
primary change in the forecast is related to the thermal 
profiles...and a shift toward mostly snow on the front end of 
the precip along and east of I-81... transitioning to a mix of 
snow/sleet, and then to rain/snow mix and then all rain after 
sunrise Sunday morning. 

Model forecast soundings off the latest NAM and GFS are
indicating a relatively deep layer of cold air remaining in 
place across the ern parts of the forecast area Saturday 
night...with the push of warm air aloft from the sw not making 
it across the region until around sunrise Sunday. Areas west of 
I-81 Saturday night will likely see a mix of snow/sleet and 
eventually rain by Sunday morning. The nose of warm air aloft 
does not appear to be as warm and strong as previously 
thought...so the threat for freezing rain appears to be now 
limited. This will likely lead to more sleet and snow...so 
increased snowfall amounts Saturday night...in the range of 1 to
4 inches. The highest amounts will be found in the higher 
elevations of the Poconos, srn Catskills and the Tug Hill 
plateau. Ice amounts should be very light.

On Sunday, the warm front will continue to lift northward with a
dry  wedge of air pushing in on the back side of the system and
a good amt of drying aloft. Surface temperatures warming into 
the 40s on Sunday and mostly light rain in the morning will 
transition to very light rain/drizzle later in the day across 
much of the area. The rain may remain more persistent and steady
along and north of the Thruway...but the trend will be to 
become lighter into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
347 pm update...
Surface low pressure will move to the east across ern Canada
Sunday evening through Monday night will bring in another cold
Canadian air mass across the region with light lake rain and/or
snow showers through the period. The lake effect showers Sunday
evening will start off as rain or a rain/snow mix...and then go
to all snow Sunday night/Monday morning. Temperatures warm back
into the mid to upper 30s Monday afternoon with rain mixing in 
at times, especially in the lower elevations. Precip goes back 
to all snow Monday night/Tue morning and tapers off Tuesday 
through the day.

High pressure builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with quiet
and cold weather expected. Lows Tue night will fall back into 
the teens. However, temperatures will rebound Wed into Thursday 
with highs jumping back into the 40s. The next round of 
precip...likely a wintry mix changing to all rain...is expected 
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 am update...
lake effect clouds and flurries continue over RME and SYR early
this morning until around 12z. RME could fall to high end MVFR
cigs. 

Rest of the sites only have high clouds this morning. Clouds
lower at AVP this afternoon and evening. They should stay VFR
but could have some flurries. 

Early this morning southwest or west winds at 5 kts except AVP
which has an east drainage wind at 5 kts. Around 14z winds shift
to the southwest and increase to 4 to 8 kts. This evening winds
return to light and variable. 

Outlook...
Overnight tonight and Saturday...VFR. 

Saturday night and Sunday...IFR in rain, mixed precipitation 
and snow. Southerly wind gusts Sunday around 20 knots in the
afternoon. 

Monday... Rain and Snow showers with restrictions possible.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TAC