209 FXUS61 KBGM 080553 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1253 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will give way to a low pressure system tracking through the Mid-Atlantic states. Light snow is possible in northeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. A strong low pressure system will move through Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a round of mixed precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 830 PM update... Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario continues to appear cellular and somewhat disorganized. We feel comfortable sticking to our forecast of 1-2 inches of snow accumulation overnight across northwestern sections of Oneida County. Temperatures over interior sections of the Susquehanna Region fell off faster than expected this evening. We adjusted minimum temperatures lower in some of the sheltered valley locations through Friday morning. Most areas will bottom out in the single digits, but a few readings around zero are likely in the normally colder valleys of Upstate NY. 4 PM update... Enough instability is present late this afternoon for some scattered light snow showers. These should decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating. However, a good model consensus is present with another band of snow showers forming just north of the Thruway for a time this evening. Snow chances were increased to reflect this trend. With the high pressure system building into the region the window for this band looks rather short this evening. The window looks rather short as the instability has to decrease first which will take into the early evening and then the changing wind direction and decrease in speed due to the high will become hostile for lake effect snow. QPF looks fairly light this evening in Oneida county and just north of Syracuse. However, higher ratios near 20:1 could still lead to a few spots getting a inch or so of snowfall. Further south across the remainder of the region, the main concern will be the potential for single digit lows once again. Some clearing is likely to result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Combined with a residual snow cover this forecast undercut model guidance by a couple of degrees with the lows. High pressure will build into the region for a time tomorrow. This will result in just some high clouds for most of the region. A weak area of low pressure will move through the Mid- Atlantic region. Enough moisture may be lifted in the Poconos for a brief period of very light snow. However, the majority of the models have trended this system even further south reducing snow chances even further. Highs should get into the 30's tomorrow as the airmass modifies some. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 347 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next round of wintry mix Saturday evening into early Sunday morning...changing to all rain or drizzle on Sunday...with a brief period of warmer temperatures on Sunday as well. Conditions will be dry and on the cool side Friday night into Saturday morning with a wedge of high pressure at the surface keeping sky conditions mostly clear and winds light...which will allow for decent raditional cooling...and surface temperatures into the teens. Weather will remain quiet through most of the day Saturday as the high over Quebec shifts slowly to the east. The basic idea of the forecast Saturday night remains mostly the same...with a large area of low pressure moving newd through the Great Lakes and a warm front extending to the east, sweeping north from the mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley region through the Northeast. This feature should be moving at a fairly good clip...with precip amts generally less than a half inch. The primary change in the forecast is related to the thermal profiles...and a shift toward mostly snow on the front end of the precip along and east of I-81... transitioning to a mix of snow/sleet, and then to rain/snow mix and then all rain after sunrise Sunday morning. Model forecast soundings off the latest NAM and GFS are indicating a relatively deep layer of cold air remaining in place across the ern parts of the forecast area Saturday night...with the push of warm air aloft from the sw not making it across the region until around sunrise Sunday. Areas west of I-81 Saturday night will likely see a mix of snow/sleet and eventually rain by Sunday morning. The nose of warm air aloft does not appear to be as warm and strong as previously thought...so the threat for freezing rain appears to be now limited. This will likely lead to more sleet and snow...so increased snowfall amounts Saturday night...in the range of 1 to 4 inches. The highest amounts will be found in the higher elevations of the Poconos, srn Catskills and the Tug Hill plateau. Ice amounts should be very light. On Sunday, the warm front will continue to lift northward with a dry wedge of air pushing in on the back side of the system and a good amt of drying aloft. Surface temperatures warming into the 40s on Sunday and mostly light rain in the morning will transition to very light rain/drizzle later in the day across much of the area. The rain may remain more persistent and steady along and north of the Thruway...but the trend will be to become lighter into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 347 pm update... Surface low pressure will move to the east across ern Canada Sunday evening through Monday night will bring in another cold Canadian air mass across the region with light lake rain and/or snow showers through the period. The lake effect showers Sunday evening will start off as rain or a rain/snow mix...and then go to all snow Sunday night/Monday morning. Temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 30s Monday afternoon with rain mixing in at times, especially in the lower elevations. Precip goes back to all snow Monday night/Tue morning and tapers off Tuesday through the day. High pressure builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with quiet and cold weather expected. Lows Tue night will fall back into the teens. However, temperatures will rebound Wed into Thursday with highs jumping back into the 40s. The next round of precip...likely a wintry mix changing to all rain...is expected by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 am update... lake effect clouds and flurries continue over RME and SYR early this morning until around 12z. RME could fall to high end MVFR cigs. Rest of the sites only have high clouds this morning. Clouds lower at AVP this afternoon and evening. They should stay VFR but could have some flurries. Early this morning southwest or west winds at 5 kts except AVP which has an east drainage wind at 5 kts. Around 14z winds shift to the southwest and increase to 4 to 8 kts. This evening winds return to light and variable. Outlook... Overnight tonight and Saturday...VFR. Saturday night and Sunday...IFR in rain, mixed precipitation and snow. Southerly wind gusts Sunday around 20 knots in the afternoon. Monday... Rain and Snow showers with restrictions possible. Tuesday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...TAC