009 
FXUS64 KAMA 062112
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
312 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...

Elevated Fire weather conditions will continue through this 
afternoon as breezy wind speeds and dry conditions are expected. 
Relative humidity values are the limiting factor today as we may 
only get down to 20-25 percent. Nevertheless, breezy wind speeds 
of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph will result in at least 
elevated conditions across the southwest. Temperatures this 
afternoon will finally get back well above freezing with low to 
mid 60s anticipated. This will begin our stretch of above freezing
temperatures, or in other words...we are not expecting 
temperatures to get below freezing again until Sunday morning. 

Zonal flow in the upper levels will continue into Thursday. At 
the surface, westerly downsloping wind speeds will help get high 
temperatures into the 80s for southwestern parts of the 
Panhandles. A boundary may very well stall out across northeastern
parts of the Panhandles as a surface low transitions over eastern
New Mexico/southern parts of the Texas Panhandle, which will make
for a very difficult high temperature forecast Thursday. High 
temperatures could be as low at the mid 40s for the northeast, 
while highs in the lower 80s may come to fruition in the 
southwest. Track of the low and the possible boundary will be key 
to watch going into tomorrow. With the warmer temperatures in the 
southwest and RH values around 10-15 percent, fire weather 
concerns will arise again tomorrow. We may need a Red Flag Warning
across southwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Tomorrows 
possible temperature difference of 40 degrees across the 
Panhandles will make it difficult to delineate exactly where that 
fire weather threat lines up. Nevertheless, fire weather concerns 
will be possible for at least portions of the Texas Panhandle 
Thursday, if the warm temperatures turn out. 

Guerrero

&&

.LONG TERM...Tomorrow Night through next Wednesday...

Tricky temperature forecast to start off the long term period 
Thursday night into Friday. Jet streak aloft looks to force 
another shallow cold front mainly through central Kansas and 
Oklahoma, but this should effect the northeastern and eastern 
Panhandles. This front doesn't appear to be strongly forced, so do
not think it will overachieve quite as much as recent fronts 
have. Have nevertheless shaded cooler in our northeast and east 
Thursday night. During the day Friday, progged SW-NE oriented jet 
streak centered over southern AZ/NM will force lee surface 
pressure falls to our northwest. This will set up a big 
temperature contrast, with areas across the southwest heating out 
under downslope southwest winds while the northeast, stuck with a 
southeast wind, stays relatively cool.

Vigorous upper wave will translate eastward across the Plains Friday 
night into Saturday. Main wave looks to pass just to our north 
Friday night, putting the Panhandles mostly in the dry slot of the 
system. This is a typical windy pattern for the Panhandles, so did 
boost winds accordingly. While the wave will likely arrive 
overnight, tempering fire weather concerns somewhat, still could 
have some fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday. Windy and 
mostly cloudy Friday night should help moderate lows.

Saturday night through Monday should remain cool as latest front 
pushes through while the upper wave exits to the northeast and 
mostly zonal flow becomes predominant aloft. Surface winds turn 
southeasterly by Sunday, keeping us cool but allowing overall 
moisture to begin to tick upward.

Active weather pattern looks to begin by Monday afternoon as a 
strong upper low builds into the southwestern CONUS and flow aloft 
shifts to a SW-NE orientation. Chances for showers have been kept in 
for Monday as any disturbance in this flow aloft could be enough 
forcing for some rain as moist advection in the lower levels 
continues.

Main part of the wave looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday, 
allowing for a likely chance of showers and perhaps some thunder 
Tuesday afternoon. There are some timing differences, but most 
available GEFS members and operational guidance are depicting 
precipitation with temperatures warm enough for rain, save for the 
western OK Panhandle Monday and Tuesday night when a bit of snow 
could mix in. With the always fickle nature of precipitation in the 
Panhandles and these timing differences in mind, will not go all out 
on PoPs in any one period at this time. Some GFS runs with a bit 
slower wave timing have depicted destabilization on the order of 500 
MUCAPE across our eastern zones with progged 0-6 shear greater than 
50 knots, so will at least need to glance at this period for 
potential organized convection in addition to the rainfall in the 
days ahead.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Main concern is the breezy wind today. Later tonight 
we get a break in wind speeds as the atmosphere decouples, but a 
strong low level jet will produce conditions favorable for low 
level wind shear. That jet will set up around 1000 ft AGL at 
45-55 knots. Otherwise high cirrus will be noted through this 
cycle.

Guerrero 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather conditions will arise again on Thursday as RFTI values 
reach 5. Westerly downsloping wind speeds will be around 25 to 35 
mph tomorrow with minimum RH values around 10-15 percent. Wind gusts 
will be pushing 40-50 mph. Highs across the southwest may very well 
reach 80 degrees. All in all, its going to be a possible critical 
fire weather day for southwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle. The 
one factor that could get us is the track of the surface low and 
associated temperatures at the surface. Those temperatures will 
affect RH values and where we delineate that threat line is 
difficult to say at this time. Will need to watch the track of the 
low as we head into tomorrow. ERC values are around the 50th-60th 
percentile at this time.

Fire weather concerns continue Friday and Saturday. Friday,
southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph with minimum RH values below 20
percent will be possible across the western Panhandles. Saturday
looks to feature west-northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with RH
values below 20 percent. Both days, the area of greatest concern
will be the southwestern Texas Panhandle, where ERC values
indicate the most favorable fuels will be present.

Guerrero/Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  80  36  68  43 /   0   0   5   5  20 
Beaver OK                  33  48  23  50  41 /   0   0   5   0  20 
Boise City OK              36  66  26  64  37 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Borger TX                  43  75  33  66  46 /   0   0   5   0  20 
Boys Ranch TX              39  78  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Canyon TX                  40  81  38  73  43 /   0   0   5   5  20 
Clarendon TX               40  79  36  60  46 /   0   0  10   5  20 
Dalhart TX                 36  73  30  69  39 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Guymon OK                  37  58  24  53  40 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Hereford TX                40  80  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Lipscomb TX                38  62  25  55  44 /   0   0   5   0  20 
Pampa TX                   42  76  31  62  44 /   0   0   5   0  20 
Shamrock TX                35  77  31  55  47 /   0   0  10   0  20 
Wellington TX              35  78  35  58  49 /   0   0  10   0  20 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/77/24