009 FXUS64 KAMA 062112 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 312 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Elevated Fire weather conditions will continue through this afternoon as breezy wind speeds and dry conditions are expected. Relative humidity values are the limiting factor today as we may only get down to 20-25 percent. Nevertheless, breezy wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph will result in at least elevated conditions across the southwest. Temperatures this afternoon will finally get back well above freezing with low to mid 60s anticipated. This will begin our stretch of above freezing temperatures, or in other words...we are not expecting temperatures to get below freezing again until Sunday morning. Zonal flow in the upper levels will continue into Thursday. At the surface, westerly downsloping wind speeds will help get high temperatures into the 80s for southwestern parts of the Panhandles. A boundary may very well stall out across northeastern parts of the Panhandles as a surface low transitions over eastern New Mexico/southern parts of the Texas Panhandle, which will make for a very difficult high temperature forecast Thursday. High temperatures could be as low at the mid 40s for the northeast, while highs in the lower 80s may come to fruition in the southwest. Track of the low and the possible boundary will be key to watch going into tomorrow. With the warmer temperatures in the southwest and RH values around 10-15 percent, fire weather concerns will arise again tomorrow. We may need a Red Flag Warning across southwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Tomorrows possible temperature difference of 40 degrees across the Panhandles will make it difficult to delineate exactly where that fire weather threat lines up. Nevertheless, fire weather concerns will be possible for at least portions of the Texas Panhandle Thursday, if the warm temperatures turn out. Guerrero && .LONG TERM...Tomorrow Night through next Wednesday... Tricky temperature forecast to start off the long term period Thursday night into Friday. Jet streak aloft looks to force another shallow cold front mainly through central Kansas and Oklahoma, but this should effect the northeastern and eastern Panhandles. This front doesn't appear to be strongly forced, so do not think it will overachieve quite as much as recent fronts have. Have nevertheless shaded cooler in our northeast and east Thursday night. During the day Friday, progged SW-NE oriented jet streak centered over southern AZ/NM will force lee surface pressure falls to our northwest. This will set up a big temperature contrast, with areas across the southwest heating out under downslope southwest winds while the northeast, stuck with a southeast wind, stays relatively cool. Vigorous upper wave will translate eastward across the Plains Friday night into Saturday. Main wave looks to pass just to our north Friday night, putting the Panhandles mostly in the dry slot of the system. This is a typical windy pattern for the Panhandles, so did boost winds accordingly. While the wave will likely arrive overnight, tempering fire weather concerns somewhat, still could have some fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday. Windy and mostly cloudy Friday night should help moderate lows. Saturday night through Monday should remain cool as latest front pushes through while the upper wave exits to the northeast and mostly zonal flow becomes predominant aloft. Surface winds turn southeasterly by Sunday, keeping us cool but allowing overall moisture to begin to tick upward. Active weather pattern looks to begin by Monday afternoon as a strong upper low builds into the southwestern CONUS and flow aloft shifts to a SW-NE orientation. Chances for showers have been kept in for Monday as any disturbance in this flow aloft could be enough forcing for some rain as moist advection in the lower levels continues. Main part of the wave looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for a likely chance of showers and perhaps some thunder Tuesday afternoon. There are some timing differences, but most available GEFS members and operational guidance are depicting precipitation with temperatures warm enough for rain, save for the western OK Panhandle Monday and Tuesday night when a bit of snow could mix in. With the always fickle nature of precipitation in the Panhandles and these timing differences in mind, will not go all out on PoPs in any one period at this time. Some GFS runs with a bit slower wave timing have depicted destabilization on the order of 500 MUCAPE across our eastern zones with progged 0-6 shear greater than 50 knots, so will at least need to glance at this period for potential organized convection in addition to the rainfall in the days ahead. Ferguson && .AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid TAF period. Main concern is the breezy wind today. Later tonight we get a break in wind speeds as the atmosphere decouples, but a strong low level jet will produce conditions favorable for low level wind shear. That jet will set up around 1000 ft AGL at 45-55 knots. Otherwise high cirrus will be noted through this cycle. Guerrero && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather conditions will arise again on Thursday as RFTI values reach 5. Westerly downsloping wind speeds will be around 25 to 35 mph tomorrow with minimum RH values around 10-15 percent. Wind gusts will be pushing 40-50 mph. Highs across the southwest may very well reach 80 degrees. All in all, its going to be a possible critical fire weather day for southwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle. The one factor that could get us is the track of the surface low and associated temperatures at the surface. Those temperatures will affect RH values and where we delineate that threat line is difficult to say at this time. Will need to watch the track of the low as we head into tomorrow. ERC values are around the 50th-60th percentile at this time. Fire weather concerns continue Friday and Saturday. Friday, southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph with minimum RH values below 20 percent will be possible across the western Panhandles. Saturday looks to feature west-northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with RH values below 20 percent. Both days, the area of greatest concern will be the southwestern Texas Panhandle, where ERC values indicate the most favorable fuels will be present. Guerrero/Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 41 80 36 68 43 / 0 0 5 5 20 Beaver OK 33 48 23 50 41 / 0 0 5 0 20 Boise City OK 36 66 26 64 37 / 0 0 0 5 20 Borger TX 43 75 33 66 46 / 0 0 5 0 20 Boys Ranch TX 39 78 35 71 42 / 0 0 0 5 20 Canyon TX 40 81 38 73 43 / 0 0 5 5 20 Clarendon TX 40 79 36 60 46 / 0 0 10 5 20 Dalhart TX 36 73 30 69 39 / 0 0 0 5 20 Guymon OK 37 58 24 53 40 / 0 0 0 5 20 Hereford TX 40 80 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 5 20 Lipscomb TX 38 62 25 55 44 / 0 0 5 0 20 Pampa TX 42 76 31 62 44 / 0 0 5 0 20 Shamrock TX 35 77 31 55 47 / 0 0 10 0 20 Wellington TX 35 78 35 58 49 / 0 0 10 0 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 24/77/24