286 
FXUS63 KBIS 051545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

With ample sunshine across much of the area today, decided to
nudge highs up just a bit. MOS guidance is probably a bit too
aggressive with the snowpack that is in place, but a 50/50 blend
of a consensus MOS solution and the previous forecast seems
reasonable with most of the area reaching the mid to upper teens
above zero. Otherwise, blended the latest observations to the
going forecast. 

UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows mostly clear skies now that the
shortwave is downstream. Next batch of cloud cover is currently
over central Saskatchewan. The RAP seems to be handling the
movement of this fairly decently along the next shortwave with
cloud cover increasing by mid-day. Surface visibilities are mostly
10 miles across the board as winds have died down enough. Still
expecting some patchy blowing snow today once winds increase this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

The synoptic scale pattern this morning is marked by the
persistence of a strong Hudson Bay low to our northeast, a weak 
closed low over the Washington coast, and a stronger Pacific low 
off the coast of California. A potent shortwave depicted on water 
vapor imagery over the Dakotas this morning will continue to round
the large scale trough pattern and move off to our south- 
southeast. Upstream, a relatively weaker shortwave embedded in the
northerly cyclonic flow was depicted over north-central Canada. 
At the surface, a modest pressure gradient will be maintained 
today with the influence of the upstream wave. Though not as 
strong as yesterday, northwest winds will still range from 10-25 
knots at the surface. Patchy blowing snow will be possible again 
however not nearly as widespread as it was yesterday. 

Overnight tonight, a weak and mostly dry cold front arrives 
associated with the upper shortwave. This sustains northwest winds
5 to 15 knots at the surface through most of the night with a few
areas of flurries possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

The long term forecast is highlighted by a transition to a more
active pattern with a strong low pressure system forecast to
develop out of the central Rockies this weekend.

Wednesday through Friday a modest ridging pattern develops over 
the Northern Plains. Temperatures gradually warm with highs in the
20s by Friday. MOS guidance wants to be more bullish with the
warming trend though this is likely overdone with our current
snowpack. Wednesday night into Thursday morning a shortwave 
moves over Colorado/Wyoming into the plains bringing a chance of 
light snow to areas near the ND/SD border.

Beginning Friday a potent trough begins to make its way over the
southeast US, rounding the Four Corners region by late Friday
night. Model guidance has been consistent in developing a strong
Colorado low and then tracking it towards the Great Lakes region
through Sunday. The aforementioned shortwave that makes its way
through Wednesday/Thursday dampens the upper level ridge 
somewhat, which is in part why global models have been 
consistently keeping the brunt of this weekend's system to our 
southeast. However there is still a potential for impacts in our 
area and the severity will have to do with how a low over the 
Pacific northwest coast interacts with the southern wave as they 
make their way over the Rockies. Between the uncertainty within
the leading mid- week shortwave and the northwest wave 
interaction, global model solutions have quite a spread for QPF 
solutions. For the time a blend of solutions was used to account 
for the spread with the possibility for accumulating snow across
most if not all of western and central North Dakota. Blowing snow
will also likely be a concern with a tight pressure gradient 
Saturday and Sunday. Uncertainty in placement of higher
accumulations aside, a strong system moving through the central 
to northern plains looks likely this weekend so those with travel 
plans should monitor the forecast closely. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds
will increase through the day at around 4 to 6 kt feet. Northwest
winds increase to 15 to 25 kts gusting to 30 kts this morning,
then diminish this evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...AE