286 FXUS63 KBIS 051545 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019 With ample sunshine across much of the area today, decided to nudge highs up just a bit. MOS guidance is probably a bit too aggressive with the snowpack that is in place, but a 50/50 blend of a consensus MOS solution and the previous forecast seems reasonable with most of the area reaching the mid to upper teens above zero. Otherwise, blended the latest observations to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019 Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows mostly clear skies now that the shortwave is downstream. Next batch of cloud cover is currently over central Saskatchewan. The RAP seems to be handling the movement of this fairly decently along the next shortwave with cloud cover increasing by mid-day. Surface visibilities are mostly 10 miles across the board as winds have died down enough. Still expecting some patchy blowing snow today once winds increase this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019 The synoptic scale pattern this morning is marked by the persistence of a strong Hudson Bay low to our northeast, a weak closed low over the Washington coast, and a stronger Pacific low off the coast of California. A potent shortwave depicted on water vapor imagery over the Dakotas this morning will continue to round the large scale trough pattern and move off to our south- southeast. Upstream, a relatively weaker shortwave embedded in the northerly cyclonic flow was depicted over north-central Canada. At the surface, a modest pressure gradient will be maintained today with the influence of the upstream wave. Though not as strong as yesterday, northwest winds will still range from 10-25 knots at the surface. Patchy blowing snow will be possible again however not nearly as widespread as it was yesterday. Overnight tonight, a weak and mostly dry cold front arrives associated with the upper shortwave. This sustains northwest winds 5 to 15 knots at the surface through most of the night with a few areas of flurries possible. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2019 The long term forecast is highlighted by a transition to a more active pattern with a strong low pressure system forecast to develop out of the central Rockies this weekend. Wednesday through Friday a modest ridging pattern develops over the Northern Plains. Temperatures gradually warm with highs in the 20s by Friday. MOS guidance wants to be more bullish with the warming trend though this is likely overdone with our current snowpack. Wednesday night into Thursday morning a shortwave moves over Colorado/Wyoming into the plains bringing a chance of light snow to areas near the ND/SD border. Beginning Friday a potent trough begins to make its way over the southeast US, rounding the Four Corners region by late Friday night. Model guidance has been consistent in developing a strong Colorado low and then tracking it towards the Great Lakes region through Sunday. The aforementioned shortwave that makes its way through Wednesday/Thursday dampens the upper level ridge somewhat, which is in part why global models have been consistently keeping the brunt of this weekend's system to our southeast. However there is still a potential for impacts in our area and the severity will have to do with how a low over the Pacific northwest coast interacts with the southern wave as they make their way over the Rockies. Between the uncertainty within the leading mid- week shortwave and the northwest wave interaction, global model solutions have quite a spread for QPF solutions. For the time a blend of solutions was used to account for the spread with the possibility for accumulating snow across most if not all of western and central North Dakota. Blowing snow will also likely be a concern with a tight pressure gradient Saturday and Sunday. Uncertainty in placement of higher accumulations aside, a strong system moving through the central to northern plains looks likely this weekend so those with travel plans should monitor the forecast closely. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds will increase through the day at around 4 to 6 kt feet. Northwest winds increase to 15 to 25 kts gusting to 30 kts this morning, then diminish this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...AE