844 
FXUS63 KFGF 021830
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

A few spots in the far northern RRV still right around wind chill
advisory criteria, but overall there will be an improving trend
and allowed that portion of the headline to drop at noon. Wind
chills still in the -25 to -40 range across the Devils Lake Basin
so keeping the advisory there seems good. 

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Impacts will revolve around dangerous wind chills. Cold airmass
will continue to gradually filter into the region today/tonight.
Current satellite imagery indicates cloud cover and observations
indicate flurries along and behind the leading edge of this
airmass. Flurries extend upstream into Canada, so did adjust Wx
grids to include flurries for much of the day. By this evening, 
wind chill values will be around -40F, and thus issued a wind
chill warning. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Impacts during this forecast period revolve around blowing snow 
potential Sun/Mon and wind-chill inducing perennial arctic cold. 
Pronounced daytime adiabatic mixing and potential for momentum 
transfer could lead to patchy, if not areas of blowing snow. On 
Mon a clipper or two rounding western edge of Hudson Bay low could
add some falling flurries or snow showers to the package. A more 
westerly wind direction will favor a Devils Lake to Valley City 
tract for blowing snow, with much less effect along the valley 
proper. 

The sub zero cold combined with at least modest wind speeds will 
keep wind chill headlines in the picture for Sun night. Some 
moderation will most likely obviate the need for these after that. 
below average temps will naturally continue for the upcoming week and 
a late week system could increase snow chances as we approach the 
weekend. The early guess at this would aim at the southern forecast 
for potential impact. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Impacts will revolve around dangerous wind chills. Cold airmass
will continue to gradually filter into the region today/tonight.
Current satellite imagery indicates cloud cover and observations
indicate flurries along and behind the leading edge of this
airmass. Flurries extend upstream into Canada, so did adjust Wx
grids to include flurries for much of the day. By this evening, 
wind chill values will be around -40F, and thus issued a wind
chill warning. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Impacts during this forecast period revolve around blowing snow 
potential Sun/Mon and wind-chill inducing perennial arctic cold. 
Pronounced daytime adiabatic mixing and potential for momentum 
transfer could lead to patchy, if not areas of blowing snow. On 
Mon a clipper or two rounding western edge of Hudson Bay low could
add some falling flurries or snow showers to the package. A more 
westerly wind direction will favor a Devils Lake to Valley City 
tract for blowing snow, with much less effect along the valley 
proper. 

The sub zero cold combined with at least modest wind speeds will 
keep wind chill headlines in the picture for Sun night. Some 
moderation will most likely obviate the need for these after that. 
below average temps will naturally continue for the upcoming week and 
a late week system could increase snow chances as we approach the 
weekend. The early guess at this would aim at the southern forecast 
for potential impact. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

A few spots with 3-5SM vis due to blowing snow and patchy MVFR
stratus that is rapidly diminishing, but otherwise VFR. There will
be a continued improvement into the afternoon and tonight with all
sites becoming VFR. Some BLSN is not out of the question at KDVL
into tomorrow but not sure how much vis will go down at the
airport so have 6SM for now and will take a second look later.
Winds will shift to the west and increase into the 15 to 20 kt
range with some higher gusts possible by the end of the period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-054.

MN...Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for 
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR