844 FXUS63 KFGF 021830 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 A few spots in the far northern RRV still right around wind chill advisory criteria, but overall there will be an improving trend and allowed that portion of the headline to drop at noon. Wind chills still in the -25 to -40 range across the Devils Lake Basin so keeping the advisory there seems good. .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 Impacts will revolve around dangerous wind chills. Cold airmass will continue to gradually filter into the region today/tonight. Current satellite imagery indicates cloud cover and observations indicate flurries along and behind the leading edge of this airmass. Flurries extend upstream into Canada, so did adjust Wx grids to include flurries for much of the day. By this evening, wind chill values will be around -40F, and thus issued a wind chill warning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 Impacts during this forecast period revolve around blowing snow potential Sun/Mon and wind-chill inducing perennial arctic cold. Pronounced daytime adiabatic mixing and potential for momentum transfer could lead to patchy, if not areas of blowing snow. On Mon a clipper or two rounding western edge of Hudson Bay low could add some falling flurries or snow showers to the package. A more westerly wind direction will favor a Devils Lake to Valley City tract for blowing snow, with much less effect along the valley proper. The sub zero cold combined with at least modest wind speeds will keep wind chill headlines in the picture for Sun night. Some moderation will most likely obviate the need for these after that. below average temps will naturally continue for the upcoming week and a late week system could increase snow chances as we approach the weekend. The early guess at this would aim at the southern forecast for potential impact. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 Impacts will revolve around dangerous wind chills. Cold airmass will continue to gradually filter into the region today/tonight. Current satellite imagery indicates cloud cover and observations indicate flurries along and behind the leading edge of this airmass. Flurries extend upstream into Canada, so did adjust Wx grids to include flurries for much of the day. By this evening, wind chill values will be around -40F, and thus issued a wind chill warning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 Impacts during this forecast period revolve around blowing snow potential Sun/Mon and wind-chill inducing perennial arctic cold. Pronounced daytime adiabatic mixing and potential for momentum transfer could lead to patchy, if not areas of blowing snow. On Mon a clipper or two rounding western edge of Hudson Bay low could add some falling flurries or snow showers to the package. A more westerly wind direction will favor a Devils Lake to Valley City tract for blowing snow, with much less effect along the valley proper. The sub zero cold combined with at least modest wind speeds will keep wind chill headlines in the picture for Sun night. Some moderation will most likely obviate the need for these after that. below average temps will naturally continue for the upcoming week and a late week system could increase snow chances as we approach the weekend. The early guess at this would aim at the southern forecast for potential impact. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 A few spots with 3-5SM vis due to blowing snow and patchy MVFR stratus that is rapidly diminishing, but otherwise VFR. There will be a continued improvement into the afternoon and tonight with all sites becoming VFR. Some BLSN is not out of the question at KDVL into tomorrow but not sure how much vis will go down at the airport so have 6SM for now and will take a second look later. Winds will shift to the west and increase into the 15 to 20 kt range with some higher gusts possible by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Wind Chill Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007- 014-015-024-026-054. MN...Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...JR