536 
FXUS64 KMAF 021144
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cold frontal passage will result in MVFR to LIFR conditions at 
KMAF and KHOB this morning. Conditions should improve by afternoon
with VFR conditions at all terminals expected through much of the
remainder of the period.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Flat upper ridge over the area will give way to a trough coming 
off the CA coast today. This trough will quickly move east 
reaching NM and TX early Sunday and then pass by. The area looks 
to stay in the broad trough into early next week before an upper 
ridge looks to build in from the west. The next upper trough moves
ashore the West Coast midweek then lifts NE away from the region 
as it reaches the plains Thursday.

A cold front is moving through the Permian Basin this morning and is 
expected to make it farther into the region than shown on previous 
model runs... perhaps passing the Pecos River before lifting 
somewhat in the late afternoon. As of 08z the front was located 
along a Seminole to Big Spring line and pushing south.  The front 
will be accompanied by a gusty NE wind that will decrease through 
midday.  Have cooled temps across the Permian Basin today and east 
of the mountains tonight... later shifts may need to cool more.  

The stronger/Arctic front arrives Sunday bringing much colder wx to 
the region.  Expect highs will be reached early Sunday with temps 
falling through the day.  Expect very cold low temperatures Monday 
morning with near record lows in the teens and 20s expected across 
most of the region.  Will also have very low wind chills Monday 
morning... will reissue the SPS highlighting this concern. Highs 
Monday generally in the 30s northeast of the Pecos River with 40s 
and 50s southwest of it. Tuesday morning will be nearly as cold as 
Monday with temps warming into the 40s and 50s during the day. 
Temperatures continue to warm Wednesday with above normal readings 
expected late in the week.

This morning have low clouds moving in from the SE and also with the 
front from the NE... expect a cloudy day for much of the area.  Have 
mention of patchy fog in the forecast for this morning but so far 
have not seen any develop in the area.  Also have isolated light 
showers possible today for Eastern Permian Basin with some NE 
tonight.  Most of the rest of the week looks dry with a slight 
chance of some showers toward next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather concerns are expected late this afternoon across 
the Guadalupe Mountains, portions of the Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor,
Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau as dry and breezy conditions develop
behind a dry line. RFTI values of 2 to 5 are expected with an hour or
two of critical conditions expected toward 03/00z. Will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for these areas. Fire weather concerns will ease Sunday 
and through early next week as a cold front brings cooler and more
moist conditions areawide. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  36  41  16 /  10  10   0   0 
Carlsbad                       78  49  61  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         78  54  73  31 /  10   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  79  52  58  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 74  47  62  23 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          63  40  45  15 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          78  42  68  26 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           61  40  47  18 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                         62  41  48  19 /  10   0   0   0 
Wink                           72  47  54  21 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/12