536 FXUS64 KMAF 021144 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 544 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Cold frontal passage will result in MVFR to LIFR conditions at KMAF and KHOB this morning. Conditions should improve by afternoon with VFR conditions at all terminals expected through much of the remainder of the period. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019/ DISCUSSION... Flat upper ridge over the area will give way to a trough coming off the CA coast today. This trough will quickly move east reaching NM and TX early Sunday and then pass by. The area looks to stay in the broad trough into early next week before an upper ridge looks to build in from the west. The next upper trough moves ashore the West Coast midweek then lifts NE away from the region as it reaches the plains Thursday. A cold front is moving through the Permian Basin this morning and is expected to make it farther into the region than shown on previous model runs... perhaps passing the Pecos River before lifting somewhat in the late afternoon. As of 08z the front was located along a Seminole to Big Spring line and pushing south. The front will be accompanied by a gusty NE wind that will decrease through midday. Have cooled temps across the Permian Basin today and east of the mountains tonight... later shifts may need to cool more. The stronger/Arctic front arrives Sunday bringing much colder wx to the region. Expect highs will be reached early Sunday with temps falling through the day. Expect very cold low temperatures Monday morning with near record lows in the teens and 20s expected across most of the region. Will also have very low wind chills Monday morning... will reissue the SPS highlighting this concern. Highs Monday generally in the 30s northeast of the Pecos River with 40s and 50s southwest of it. Tuesday morning will be nearly as cold as Monday with temps warming into the 40s and 50s during the day. Temperatures continue to warm Wednesday with above normal readings expected late in the week. This morning have low clouds moving in from the SE and also with the front from the NE... expect a cloudy day for much of the area. Have mention of patchy fog in the forecast for this morning but so far have not seen any develop in the area. Also have isolated light showers possible today for Eastern Permian Basin with some NE tonight. Most of the rest of the week looks dry with a slight chance of some showers toward next weekend. FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns are expected late this afternoon across the Guadalupe Mountains, portions of the Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau as dry and breezy conditions develop behind a dry line. RFTI values of 2 to 5 are expected with an hour or two of critical conditions expected toward 03/00z. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas. Fire weather concerns will ease Sunday and through early next week as a cold front brings cooler and more moist conditions areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 36 41 16 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 78 49 61 24 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 78 54 73 31 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 79 52 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 47 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 63 40 45 15 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 78 42 68 26 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 40 47 18 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 62 41 48 19 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 72 47 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 72/12