600 
FXUS64 KMOB 010052 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...Numerous rain showers along with a few stronger embedded
thunderstorm cells are spreading across southeast MS and toward
southwest AL early this evening. A couple of the stronger cores in
southeast MS have exhibited higher mid level reflectivity within 
a region of higher CAPE and we even had a report of near dime 
sized hail near the community of Wiggins around 545 PM. 
Convection will continue to spread northeast along the approaching
shortwave trough and have increased evening POPs to likely 
chances in a few areas of far southwest AL. We will continue to
monitor for a couple of localized stronger storm cells through
early this evening, but we otherwise expect a decreasing trend in
instability through the evening hours. We will also continue to 
monitor for areas of fog development late near the immediate 
coast. /21 

&&

.MARINE...Patchy fog is already developing across portions of
Mobile, Perdido, and Pensacola Bays early this evening. Numerous
showers may tend to disrupt lower visibility through the evening
hours, but the warm and moist airmass in place may allow for
additional areas of fog development near area bays and sounds and
the near shore waters later tonight. The latest high resolution 
guidance along with SREF probabilities indicate potential for 
areas of dense fog later tonight, and an advisory may be needed 
within the next few hours for portions of the marine area, 
effective through at least early Friday morning. Will opt to 
monitor visibility trends as convection arrives and also take a 
look at the newest guidance coming in before making a final 
decision on advisory issuance. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Ongoing storms moving in the from the west will 
bring MVFR to IFR conditions into the region now through the late 
evening. Isolated thunderstorms will quickly move through TAF 
sites then lingering rain is anticipated through the night. After 
midnight patchy fog may suppress visibilities in the early morning
hours with IFR to LIFR conditions possible. After sunrise expect 
the fog to dissipate with MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the 
day. Winds will remain out of the southwest through the forecast 
period. DJ/17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...The next in a series of weak 
upper shortwaves moves east over the lower Mississippi River 
Valley this evening into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms become
more numerous over southern Mississippi as this wave approaches. 
Mid-level lapse rates ~6.5 C/km and 1500 J/kg MUCAPE (roughly 300 
J/kg in the -10 to -30 C layer) could support some small hail in 
stronger cells this evening over our southeast Mississippi 
counties. No severe weather is expected with this system, though 
some minor flooding issues could arise in heavier showers over 
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Instability 
decreases overnight tonight as showers spread east across our 
area, with a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible primarily 
along the coast. Areas of fog are also expected along the coast 
tonight as a persistent light onshore flow advects marine fog over
land. Showers exit the area to the east early Friday morning as 
the upper wave departs. Some weak redevelopment (once again non-
severe) will be possible Friday afternoon as surface heating 
destabilizes the boundary layer and we remain under the influence 
of an approaching upper jet streak exit region. Temperatures 
remain mild throughout the period with lows tonight in the low 60s
and highs on Friday in the mid to upper 70s. /49

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Relatively zonal
flow characterizes the pattern in the mid and upper levels this 
weekend with a stationary boundary lingering across the region. 
Unfortunately this means the generally wet off-and-on showery 
pattern will continue through Saturday. Not expecting any relief 
from the muggy, warm weather this weekend as daytime temperatures 
remain in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area with lows 
only falling into the 60s.

A surface low develops late Saturday into early Sunday near the
Arklatex region and quickly races off to the northeast. A cold 
front will swing across the region late Sunday night as the low 
ejects northeast. Ahead of this cold front, isolated strong to 
severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon with a squall line 
sweeping through the area during the evening hours. The chance for
strong to severe storms generally lies west of the I-65 corridor 
with the best chances across our far northwestern counties - north
of a line from Hattiesburg, MS to Camden, AL. Right now, the 
severe weather parameters are modest across the aforementioned 
area with MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg in the afternoon hours. The 
current SPC outlook for Day 4 highlights our area generally west 
of I-65 with a 15% probability of severe storms, which matches our
current thinking. All modes of severe weather would be possible 
on Sunday afternoon and heavy rain will also lead to the 
possibility of flooding across the northern portion of the area. 
This all bears watching over the next few days as we get closer in
time to the potential event. 07/MB

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Cold and dry are the main 
headlines for next week. In the wake of Sunday's cold front, 
surface high pressure will drop across the Central Plains early in
the week and slowly build into the Southeast through the 
remainder of the week. Light northerly flow will persist through 
mid week, which will allow skies to gradually clear and drier air 
to filter into the region.

Expect chilly daytime temperatures through mid-week as highs
struggle to reach into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures overnight
will bottom out in the 30s by early Tuesday morning. It will be
chilly for the early morning parades on Fat Tuesday. However, the
coldest night will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning
as temperatures plummet into the upper 20s across inland counties
and fall to near freezing closer to the coast. 07/MB

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly wind flow combined with a
relatively moist airmass and cool near shore water temperatures 
will lead to a higher chance for fog, possibly dense at times, 
over the near shore waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida 
through early Sunday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 
possible over the marine area tonight through Saturday. A strong 
cold front moves across the region late Sunday and brings with it 
a better chance for showers and storms, some possibly strong. A 
moderate to strong offshore flow sets up early next week in the 
wake of the front, with conditions likely becoming hazardous for 
small craft. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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