600 FXUS64 KMOB 010052 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information below. && .UPDATE...Numerous rain showers along with a few stronger embedded thunderstorm cells are spreading across southeast MS and toward southwest AL early this evening. A couple of the stronger cores in southeast MS have exhibited higher mid level reflectivity within a region of higher CAPE and we even had a report of near dime sized hail near the community of Wiggins around 545 PM. Convection will continue to spread northeast along the approaching shortwave trough and have increased evening POPs to likely chances in a few areas of far southwest AL. We will continue to monitor for a couple of localized stronger storm cells through early this evening, but we otherwise expect a decreasing trend in instability through the evening hours. We will also continue to monitor for areas of fog development late near the immediate coast. /21 && .MARINE...Patchy fog is already developing across portions of Mobile, Perdido, and Pensacola Bays early this evening. Numerous showers may tend to disrupt lower visibility through the evening hours, but the warm and moist airmass in place may allow for additional areas of fog development near area bays and sounds and the near shore waters later tonight. The latest high resolution guidance along with SREF probabilities indicate potential for areas of dense fog later tonight, and an advisory may be needed within the next few hours for portions of the marine area, effective through at least early Friday morning. Will opt to monitor visibility trends as convection arrives and also take a look at the newest guidance coming in before making a final decision on advisory issuance. /21 && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Ongoing storms moving in the from the west will bring MVFR to IFR conditions into the region now through the late evening. Isolated thunderstorms will quickly move through TAF sites then lingering rain is anticipated through the night. After midnight patchy fog may suppress visibilities in the early morning hours with IFR to LIFR conditions possible. After sunrise expect the fog to dissipate with MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the day. Winds will remain out of the southwest through the forecast period. DJ/17 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...The next in a series of weak upper shortwaves moves east over the lower Mississippi River Valley this evening into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous over southern Mississippi as this wave approaches. Mid-level lapse rates ~6.5 C/km and 1500 J/kg MUCAPE (roughly 300 J/kg in the -10 to -30 C layer) could support some small hail in stronger cells this evening over our southeast Mississippi counties. No severe weather is expected with this system, though some minor flooding issues could arise in heavier showers over southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Instability decreases overnight tonight as showers spread east across our area, with a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible primarily along the coast. Areas of fog are also expected along the coast tonight as a persistent light onshore flow advects marine fog over land. Showers exit the area to the east early Friday morning as the upper wave departs. Some weak redevelopment (once again non- severe) will be possible Friday afternoon as surface heating destabilizes the boundary layer and we remain under the influence of an approaching upper jet streak exit region. Temperatures remain mild throughout the period with lows tonight in the low 60s and highs on Friday in the mid to upper 70s. /49 SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Relatively zonal flow characterizes the pattern in the mid and upper levels this weekend with a stationary boundary lingering across the region. Unfortunately this means the generally wet off-and-on showery pattern will continue through Saturday. Not expecting any relief from the muggy, warm weather this weekend as daytime temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area with lows only falling into the 60s. A surface low develops late Saturday into early Sunday near the Arklatex region and quickly races off to the northeast. A cold front will swing across the region late Sunday night as the low ejects northeast. Ahead of this cold front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon with a squall line sweeping through the area during the evening hours. The chance for strong to severe storms generally lies west of the I-65 corridor with the best chances across our far northwestern counties - north of a line from Hattiesburg, MS to Camden, AL. Right now, the severe weather parameters are modest across the aforementioned area with MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg in the afternoon hours. The current SPC outlook for Day 4 highlights our area generally west of I-65 with a 15% probability of severe storms, which matches our current thinking. All modes of severe weather would be possible on Sunday afternoon and heavy rain will also lead to the possibility of flooding across the northern portion of the area. This all bears watching over the next few days as we get closer in time to the potential event. 07/MB LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Cold and dry are the main headlines for next week. In the wake of Sunday's cold front, surface high pressure will drop across the Central Plains early in the week and slowly build into the Southeast through the remainder of the week. Light northerly flow will persist through mid week, which will allow skies to gradually clear and drier air to filter into the region. Expect chilly daytime temperatures through mid-week as highs struggle to reach into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures overnight will bottom out in the 30s by early Tuesday morning. It will be chilly for the early morning parades on Fat Tuesday. However, the coldest night will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as temperatures plummet into the upper 20s across inland counties and fall to near freezing closer to the coast. 07/MB MARINE...A light to moderate southerly wind flow combined with a relatively moist airmass and cool near shore water temperatures will lead to a higher chance for fog, possibly dense at times, over the near shore waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida through early Sunday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible over the marine area tonight through Saturday. A strong cold front moves across the region late Sunday and brings with it a better chance for showers and storms, some possibly strong. A moderate to strong offshore flow sets up early next week in the wake of the front, with conditions likely becoming hazardous for small craft. /49 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob