239 
FXUS63 KILX 282348
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
548 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

The Winter Weather Advisory will continue in southeast Illinois
through 00z this evening as continual UP and FZRA moves along and
south of the I-70 corridor. Very light ice accumulations will be
possible, in the 0.01-0.02 inch range. Further to the north, 
radar echos are still occurring, but much drier air at the surface
is inhibiting precipitation from reaching the ground. Drier 
conditions move back into central Illinois Friday, as another 
weather system slides by in Wisconsin. This will bring the chance 
for precip to northern Illinois Friday, lingering clouds south 
into much of the state. However, clouds should not be as thick, 
providing some BKN ceilings around the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

Top items in the long term forecast range will include a winter
system sliding through central and southern Illinois late Saturday
night through Sunday, and the return of colder temperatures to the
region during the start of next week.

The weekend will start dry, but end wet as the next large low
pressure system moves into and through the region. Model trends
are showing the low core moving through the Ohio River Valley
region, expect the NAM which is being thrown out at this time, as
this model shows a very weak low with not much precip. This event
will arrive into Illinois around 06z Sunday, and if current model
tracks hold, northerly winds will aid in making this an all snow 
event throughout central Illinois. Accumulating snowfall is 
expected with this system, as forecasted total amounts range from 
1 inch in GBG to near 5 inches in LWV. The majority of this 
snowfall will occur along and south of a Rushville-Lincoln-
Champaign line, as around 3 inches is expected in these locations.
Further south, along I-64, up to 5 and some isolated 6 inch
reports cannot be ruled out. Once this system pushes out of the
region late Sunday, 00-03z, colder Arctic air will begin to filter
in from the northwest. A Winter Weather Advisory could be issued
within the next 24-36 hours, if models continue with this trend,
but I did not want to confuse anyone currently under the Advisory 
in southeast IL.

Old man winter wants to give the region another blast of cold
Arctic air to begin next week. Arctic High pressure will drop into
the northwestern Plains Sunday and continue to slide toward the
mid-Mississippi River Valley during the beginning of next week. 
Low temperatures will once again plummet into the single digits 
across most of central Illinois, while locations in the far 
northwest CWA are expected to fall below zero. Highs Monday will
remain in the teens, with temps Tuesday reaching the low 20s. 
Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the system Sunday
night, creating wind chill values in the negative 10 to 25 degree
range Monday and Tuesday mornings. The cold temperatures will 
linger through the first half of next week, so unfortunately the 
groundhog is not showing that spring is coming early this year. 
Criteria for a wind chill advisory would be met in the northern 
CWA, but at this time it will be held off as this is still days 
away and there is another more important event this weekend.

Temps warm into the middle part of next week, but another system
will begin to slide into the region during this timeframe.
Details on this system will become more included after this
weekends event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period.
Patchy mid-level clouds will persist across central Illinois
tonight into Friday morning, with lower clouds advecting into the
region from the southwest by late afternoon/evening. Winds will 
initially be NE at 5-10kt tonight, then will veer to E/SE on
Friday. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ066-
071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Barnes