239 FXUS63 KILX 282348 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 548 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 The Winter Weather Advisory will continue in southeast Illinois through 00z this evening as continual UP and FZRA moves along and south of the I-70 corridor. Very light ice accumulations will be possible, in the 0.01-0.02 inch range. Further to the north, radar echos are still occurring, but much drier air at the surface is inhibiting precipitation from reaching the ground. Drier conditions move back into central Illinois Friday, as another weather system slides by in Wisconsin. This will bring the chance for precip to northern Illinois Friday, lingering clouds south into much of the state. However, clouds should not be as thick, providing some BKN ceilings around the area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Top items in the long term forecast range will include a winter system sliding through central and southern Illinois late Saturday night through Sunday, and the return of colder temperatures to the region during the start of next week. The weekend will start dry, but end wet as the next large low pressure system moves into and through the region. Model trends are showing the low core moving through the Ohio River Valley region, expect the NAM which is being thrown out at this time, as this model shows a very weak low with not much precip. This event will arrive into Illinois around 06z Sunday, and if current model tracks hold, northerly winds will aid in making this an all snow event throughout central Illinois. Accumulating snowfall is expected with this system, as forecasted total amounts range from 1 inch in GBG to near 5 inches in LWV. The majority of this snowfall will occur along and south of a Rushville-Lincoln- Champaign line, as around 3 inches is expected in these locations. Further south, along I-64, up to 5 and some isolated 6 inch reports cannot be ruled out. Once this system pushes out of the region late Sunday, 00-03z, colder Arctic air will begin to filter in from the northwest. A Winter Weather Advisory could be issued within the next 24-36 hours, if models continue with this trend, but I did not want to confuse anyone currently under the Advisory in southeast IL. Old man winter wants to give the region another blast of cold Arctic air to begin next week. Arctic High pressure will drop into the northwestern Plains Sunday and continue to slide toward the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the beginning of next week. Low temperatures will once again plummet into the single digits across most of central Illinois, while locations in the far northwest CWA are expected to fall below zero. Highs Monday will remain in the teens, with temps Tuesday reaching the low 20s. Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the system Sunday night, creating wind chill values in the negative 10 to 25 degree range Monday and Tuesday mornings. The cold temperatures will linger through the first half of next week, so unfortunately the groundhog is not showing that spring is coming early this year. Criteria for a wind chill advisory would be met in the northern CWA, but at this time it will be held off as this is still days away and there is another more important event this weekend. Temps warm into the middle part of next week, but another system will begin to slide into the region during this timeframe. Details on this system will become more included after this weekends event. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period. Patchy mid-level clouds will persist across central Illinois tonight into Friday morning, with lower clouds advecting into the region from the southwest by late afternoon/evening. Winds will initially be NE at 5-10kt tonight, then will veer to E/SE on Friday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ066- 071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Barnes