332 
FXUS64 KSHV 282202
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
402 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/

Cold air advection continues this afternoon behind a departing cold
front as temperatures have generally held steady or continued a
slow fall in the wake of the front. Cloud cover has held firm over
all of the region despite the cold and dry air mass spilling into
the area with an embedded shortwave shifting east in the W/SW flow
aloft. This shortwave could aid in the development of additional 
light rain showers across parts of the region through the evening 
and overnight hours, mainly across the SE half of the region. Some
patchy fog also cannot be ruled out with temperatures falling back
into the 30s and 40s overnight. 

The chance for some spotty showers will continue through Friday and
Friday night as the frontal boundary which ushered in all this cold
air will eventually stall out and retreat back northward as a warm
front late Friday through Friday night. The big question is just
how far will the front make it back north during this timeframe 
as the temperature forecast will be greatly impacted. Highs on 
Friday are generally expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with 
overnight lows Friday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s for
most locations, but warmer temperatures are possible across our 
extreme southern zones where the warm front may be able to advance
by late Friday night.

/19/

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/ 
Disturbed zonal flow aloft atop a returning warm front to bring warm 
temperatures to the srn half of our region Saturday, with rain 
chances increasing during the evening and overnight. Sharpening temp 
gradient along the front across N TX/SE OK will provide a focus for 
tstms Saturday aftn/overnight, a few of which could produce some 
severe hail. 

Of greater concern will be tstms associated with the shortwave that 
begins to move across our region Sunday morning, forcing the cold 
front ewd along with it. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate 
instability in the warm sector particularly over N LA/S AR will 
bring a threat for severe storms with damaging winds and perhaps an 
isold tornado threat. Storms to push ewd by late Sunday 
aftn/evening, with flow aloft becoming nwly and high pressure/Arctic 
airmass building in at the sfc. 

Unseasonably cold temps and finally some dry weather are on tap for 
the first half of the work week as that Arctic airmass continues to 
settle swd. Stuck close to the blends for now, but may see these 
temps trend even cooler over the next couple of days. Wednesday 
should bring some relatively warmer temps as sunshine as CAA wanes 
and abundant sunshine wins out. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1252 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/ 

AVIATION...

For the 28/18Z TAF period, IFR/LIFR cigs continue to plague all
sites this afternoon with very little improvement expected this
afternoon. Vsbys have improved from this morning with only a few
sites still experiencing reduced vsbys with areas of patchy fog
and drizzle still possible. Expect similar conditions to maintain
overnight through Friday morning with more gradual improvements 
likely to occur across our western terminals in East Texas. Winds
will maintain a primary NW component with speeds averaging around
5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  58  51  64 /  20  20  30  30 
MLU  46  59  51  63 /  20  20  30  20 
DEQ  35  53  44  54 /  10  20  30  50 
TXK  38  54  45  58 /  10  20  30  40 
ELD  40  56  45  60 /  20  20  30  30 
TYR  39  56  51  64 /  10  20  30  40 
GGG  38  57  51  65 /  10  20  30  30 
LFK  42  62  57  73 /  20  20  30  30 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/12