332 FXUS64 KSHV 282202 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 402 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/ Cold air advection continues this afternoon behind a departing cold front as temperatures have generally held steady or continued a slow fall in the wake of the front. Cloud cover has held firm over all of the region despite the cold and dry air mass spilling into the area with an embedded shortwave shifting east in the W/SW flow aloft. This shortwave could aid in the development of additional light rain showers across parts of the region through the evening and overnight hours, mainly across the SE half of the region. Some patchy fog also cannot be ruled out with temperatures falling back into the 30s and 40s overnight. The chance for some spotty showers will continue through Friday and Friday night as the frontal boundary which ushered in all this cold air will eventually stall out and retreat back northward as a warm front late Friday through Friday night. The big question is just how far will the front make it back north during this timeframe as the temperature forecast will be greatly impacted. Highs on Friday are generally expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows Friday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s for most locations, but warmer temperatures are possible across our extreme southern zones where the warm front may be able to advance by late Friday night. /19/ .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/ Disturbed zonal flow aloft atop a returning warm front to bring warm temperatures to the srn half of our region Saturday, with rain chances increasing during the evening and overnight. Sharpening temp gradient along the front across N TX/SE OK will provide a focus for tstms Saturday aftn/overnight, a few of which could produce some severe hail. Of greater concern will be tstms associated with the shortwave that begins to move across our region Sunday morning, forcing the cold front ewd along with it. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability in the warm sector particularly over N LA/S AR will bring a threat for severe storms with damaging winds and perhaps an isold tornado threat. Storms to push ewd by late Sunday aftn/evening, with flow aloft becoming nwly and high pressure/Arctic airmass building in at the sfc. Unseasonably cold temps and finally some dry weather are on tap for the first half of the work week as that Arctic airmass continues to settle swd. Stuck close to the blends for now, but may see these temps trend even cooler over the next couple of days. Wednesday should bring some relatively warmer temps as sunshine as CAA wanes and abundant sunshine wins out. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1252 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/ AVIATION... For the 28/18Z TAF period, IFR/LIFR cigs continue to plague all sites this afternoon with very little improvement expected this afternoon. Vsbys have improved from this morning with only a few sites still experiencing reduced vsbys with areas of patchy fog and drizzle still possible. Expect similar conditions to maintain overnight through Friday morning with more gradual improvements likely to occur across our western terminals in East Texas. Winds will maintain a primary NW component with speeds averaging around 5-10 kts. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 42 58 51 64 / 20 20 30 30 MLU 46 59 51 63 / 20 20 30 20 DEQ 35 53 44 54 / 10 20 30 50 TXK 38 54 45 58 / 10 20 30 40 ELD 40 56 45 60 / 20 20 30 30 TYR 39 56 51 64 / 10 20 30 40 GGG 38 57 51 65 / 10 20 30 30 LFK 42 62 57 73 / 20 20 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 19/12