268 
FXUS63 KMPX 262143
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

Updated to add a couple more counties to the advisory in east
central MN for tonight. Radar trends continue to show band of 
FGEn snow moving across the northern half of the CWA. There is 
indication that this area will eventually diminish and exit to the
east by early evening. Tried to time the ending of the higher end
PoPs into evening. This should taper the accumulating snow until 
later his evening to the northwest. The upper trough is forecast 
to drop southeast through the night. Forcing is adequate for 
another round of moderate snow as it moves across mainly the 
northern half of the CWA once again during the night. An
additional inch or two could fall over the western portion of the
I-94 corridor, with the heavier accumulations still favoring a 
portion of east central MN into west central WI, along and east of
the I-35 corridor and along and north of I-94 in west central WI.

The snow should end rapidly Wednesday morning with some clearing 
expected. Temperatures will remain in the single digits to the 
west and some lower/middle teens to the east. 

Into Wednesday night, the next weaker wave moves across South
Dakota spreading clouds over the southwest during the night. 
Model trends are weakening the short wave and moisture appears to
be lacking as it rides into the retreating surface ridge. We will
retain some low end chance PoPs late in the night for the 
southwest CWA. Overnight lows will be tempered by thicker clouds 
to the west, but are expected to drop off to near 10 below over a 
portion of west central WI. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

More punishing winter weather is on tap for all of the long term
period with a couple rounds of snow Thursday and Friday, followed
by record cold this weekend and early next week. 

The only good news in this forecast is that models continue to
trend drier with the Thursday snow. This shouldn't be too much of
a surprise with a weak wave propagating over a 1023mb high 
pressure center across Iowa. Snow associated with this wave will
be on a downward trend in intensity by the time it reaches
southwest Minnesota Thursday morning and should be dissipated by
Thursday afternoon. 

The Friday system has exhibited a lot of inconsistency in recent 
days within the guidance. The overall trend today has been 
stronger and snowier. GEFS plumes still show substantial spread,
ranging from 0.04 to 0.45" of QPF, but there is some clustering 
around 0.20". EPS is wetter with about 0.30" and the 12Z ECMWF is 
wettest of all guidance at 0.40". Wind should be light and there
will be a deep layer of lift throughout the mid levels so 15-20:1
snow ratios aren't out of the question. Depending how the wave 
evolves and if it can become even more negatively tilted building
on the trend today, then we may see some banding and hefty snow 
rates as well. Current forecast calls for between 0.20-0.25" QPF, 
which could be conservative but is within the median of the 
guidance. The aforementioned snow ratios would fluff that up into 
3 to 5 inches. 

Record cold air is set to arrive following the departure of that
system beginning Saturday. Seeing that we are struggling to reach
10 today, I don't see how we're going to make it above zero Sunday
and maybe Monday with the quality of the airmass. 925 mb temps are
about -18C today which matches well with our upper single digits.
By Sunday afternoon they drop to -25C, which should be about -3F 
at the surface and around 35 degrees below normal. The atmosphere
remains very cold but slowly moderates Monday and Tuesday. Overnight
lows in the teens and maybe low 20s below zero are likely. A
summary of records is listed below:

Record cold high temps:

MSP: March 3: 6 (1873), March 4: 8 (1917), March 5: 8 (1901)
STC: March 3: 3 (2002), March 4: 6 (2015), March 5: 7 (1943)
EAU: March 3: 9 (2002), March 4: 11 (2015), March 5: 7 (1901)

Record lows:

MSP: March 3: -13 (1873), March 4: -22 (1873), March 5: -14 (1960)
STC: March 3: -19 (2014), March 4: -19 (1917), March 5: -17 (2003)
EAU: March 3: -21 (2014), March 4: -19 (1917), March 5: -20 (1917)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

IFR conditions associated with snow band as it works its way east
across the entire northern CWA this afternoon. May see a brief
lull in activity on the southern periphery before the upper 
trough drops southeast and brings in more IFR conditions into the 
evening. Snow will end from west to east across western sites 
through about 10z and in the east by 14z Wed. Surface winds light 
east/Southeast becoming northwest behind system. 

KMSP...
KMSP on the southern edge of the snow band. Expect current rate of
snow to continue through most of the afternoon. We could see this
edge drift northeast by evening, but we do expect another lowering
of ceilings/vsbys late this evening and after midnight as the 
upper trough moves through. Snow amounts of around an inch this 
afternoon and another inch of so later tonight likely. System 
should exit the area before 12z Wed with winds becoming northwest 
and eventually VFR again by mid morning. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. 
Thu...MVFR early with -SN possible. VFR late. Wind SW 5-10 kts. 
Fri...MVFR/IFR with -SN likely. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ045-052-
     053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE