268 FXUS63 KMPX 262143 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 Updated to add a couple more counties to the advisory in east central MN for tonight. Radar trends continue to show band of FGEn snow moving across the northern half of the CWA. There is indication that this area will eventually diminish and exit to the east by early evening. Tried to time the ending of the higher end PoPs into evening. This should taper the accumulating snow until later his evening to the northwest. The upper trough is forecast to drop southeast through the night. Forcing is adequate for another round of moderate snow as it moves across mainly the northern half of the CWA once again during the night. An additional inch or two could fall over the western portion of the I-94 corridor, with the heavier accumulations still favoring a portion of east central MN into west central WI, along and east of the I-35 corridor and along and north of I-94 in west central WI. The snow should end rapidly Wednesday morning with some clearing expected. Temperatures will remain in the single digits to the west and some lower/middle teens to the east. Into Wednesday night, the next weaker wave moves across South Dakota spreading clouds over the southwest during the night. Model trends are weakening the short wave and moisture appears to be lacking as it rides into the retreating surface ridge. We will retain some low end chance PoPs late in the night for the southwest CWA. Overnight lows will be tempered by thicker clouds to the west, but are expected to drop off to near 10 below over a portion of west central WI. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 More punishing winter weather is on tap for all of the long term period with a couple rounds of snow Thursday and Friday, followed by record cold this weekend and early next week. The only good news in this forecast is that models continue to trend drier with the Thursday snow. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise with a weak wave propagating over a 1023mb high pressure center across Iowa. Snow associated with this wave will be on a downward trend in intensity by the time it reaches southwest Minnesota Thursday morning and should be dissipated by Thursday afternoon. The Friday system has exhibited a lot of inconsistency in recent days within the guidance. The overall trend today has been stronger and snowier. GEFS plumes still show substantial spread, ranging from 0.04 to 0.45" of QPF, but there is some clustering around 0.20". EPS is wetter with about 0.30" and the 12Z ECMWF is wettest of all guidance at 0.40". Wind should be light and there will be a deep layer of lift throughout the mid levels so 15-20:1 snow ratios aren't out of the question. Depending how the wave evolves and if it can become even more negatively tilted building on the trend today, then we may see some banding and hefty snow rates as well. Current forecast calls for between 0.20-0.25" QPF, which could be conservative but is within the median of the guidance. The aforementioned snow ratios would fluff that up into 3 to 5 inches. Record cold air is set to arrive following the departure of that system beginning Saturday. Seeing that we are struggling to reach 10 today, I don't see how we're going to make it above zero Sunday and maybe Monday with the quality of the airmass. 925 mb temps are about -18C today which matches well with our upper single digits. By Sunday afternoon they drop to -25C, which should be about -3F at the surface and around 35 degrees below normal. The atmosphere remains very cold but slowly moderates Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows in the teens and maybe low 20s below zero are likely. A summary of records is listed below: Record cold high temps: MSP: March 3: 6 (1873), March 4: 8 (1917), March 5: 8 (1901) STC: March 3: 3 (2002), March 4: 6 (2015), March 5: 7 (1943) EAU: March 3: 9 (2002), March 4: 11 (2015), March 5: 7 (1901) Record lows: MSP: March 3: -13 (1873), March 4: -22 (1873), March 5: -14 (1960) STC: March 3: -19 (2014), March 4: -19 (1917), March 5: -17 (2003) EAU: March 3: -21 (2014), March 4: -19 (1917), March 5: -20 (1917) && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 IFR conditions associated with snow band as it works its way east across the entire northern CWA this afternoon. May see a brief lull in activity on the southern periphery before the upper trough drops southeast and brings in more IFR conditions into the evening. Snow will end from west to east across western sites through about 10z and in the east by 14z Wed. Surface winds light east/Southeast becoming northwest behind system. KMSP... KMSP on the southern edge of the snow band. Expect current rate of snow to continue through most of the afternoon. We could see this edge drift northeast by evening, but we do expect another lowering of ceilings/vsbys late this evening and after midnight as the upper trough moves through. Snow amounts of around an inch this afternoon and another inch of so later tonight likely. System should exit the area before 12z Wed with winds becoming northwest and eventually VFR again by mid morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed night...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. Thu...MVFR early with -SN possible. VFR late. Wind SW 5-10 kts. Fri...MVFR/IFR with -SN likely. Wind NNW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ014>016- 023-025-027-028. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ045-052- 053. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...DWE