867 
FXUS63 KIND 222002
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

A strong upper level trough moving out of the desert southwest
will induce lee cyclogenesis tonight in the central high
plains/panhandles region. This system will strengthen rapidly and
move into the Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing widespread
rainfall and a chance for thunderstorms during the first portion
of the weekend, followed by a cooldown and windy weather on
Sunday. Next week looks to be near normal for the time of year
with largely zonal flow in place across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Precipitation is ongoing this morning to our south along the
midlevel frontal zone, and expect this activity to remain to our
south through the day. Should see a steady increase in mid and
high cloud ahead of the developing system well to our west.

Warm advection will begin to ramp up today, and this should push
high temperatures about 4-5 degrees warmer today than yesterday,
even with the gradual increase in cloud cover. Most areas will top
out somewhere in the 40s, although the 50 degree mark may sneak
into the southwestern area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Forecast foci in the short term include rain chances, thunder
potential, severe weather potential, and windy conditions on
Sunday.

Will confine highest pops overnight to the last few hours of the
period as isentropic lift ramps up around that time. Categorical
pops will be required most areas early Saturday, and the entire
area Saturday afternoon and evening, ramping down late Saturday
night into Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the area.

Day 2 outlook has pulled back on severe threat across our CWA and
this is reasonable as focus is narrowing in on the south central
Mississippi valley. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated severe
storm but given the difficulty of significant destabilization this
far north agree with the pullback.

There will still be a good chance for some thunder, mainly
Saturday afternoon and evening, given the strength of the system,
and the deeper storms will have the potential to mix down some of
the 50-60KT low level jet crossing the area ahead of the front
late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, but an organized
severe threat will be difficult to come by.

Focus then shifts to winds on Sunday as the cold front sweeps
through the area and a very strong surface pressure gradient is
present over the area. 925 mb winds at 40-50KT and BUFKIT momentum
transfer progs suggest wind gusts will begin to ramp up late
Saturday night, with gusts nudging above 30KT, increasing to near
40KT during the day on Sunday, particularly central and north. A
wind advisory will likely be needed across the entire area, but
will hold off for now given it's fifth period. High wind warning
is not entirely out of the question, but it is awfully hard to
come by 50KT nonconvective gusts with enough coverage and
frequency to support warning.

Made adjustments to blend temperatures based on temp advection
progs and low level thicknesses. Blend highs on Saturday tracked
well with surface wetbulb progs and were generally left as is.
Temperatures may fall steadily Sunday afternoon as the cold front
continues to depart.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Models in reasonable agreement that two upper waves will drop 
southeast across the area in fast northwest flow aloft. These could 
bring a chance or rain and snow to central Indiana for the middle 
and later parts of next week. With fast flow, confidence in exact 
timing is not great, so will leave the blend PoPs as is.

Normal to slightly below normal temperatures per the blend look 
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Good confidence that VFR conditions will persist through 09z tonight 
or so. The, rain will move in and the ceiling and visibility will 
deteriorate as a strong southwest low pressure moves to the 
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.   

Winds will be east up to 10 knots through 12z and then southeast 
after that. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK