867 FXUS63 KIND 222002 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 A strong upper level trough moving out of the desert southwest will induce lee cyclogenesis tonight in the central high plains/panhandles region. This system will strengthen rapidly and move into the Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing widespread rainfall and a chance for thunderstorms during the first portion of the weekend, followed by a cooldown and windy weather on Sunday. Next week looks to be near normal for the time of year with largely zonal flow in place across the area. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Precipitation is ongoing this morning to our south along the midlevel frontal zone, and expect this activity to remain to our south through the day. Should see a steady increase in mid and high cloud ahead of the developing system well to our west. Warm advection will begin to ramp up today, and this should push high temperatures about 4-5 degrees warmer today than yesterday, even with the gradual increase in cloud cover. Most areas will top out somewhere in the 40s, although the 50 degree mark may sneak into the southwestern area this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Forecast foci in the short term include rain chances, thunder potential, severe weather potential, and windy conditions on Sunday. Will confine highest pops overnight to the last few hours of the period as isentropic lift ramps up around that time. Categorical pops will be required most areas early Saturday, and the entire area Saturday afternoon and evening, ramping down late Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the area. Day 2 outlook has pulled back on severe threat across our CWA and this is reasonable as focus is narrowing in on the south central Mississippi valley. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated severe storm but given the difficulty of significant destabilization this far north agree with the pullback. There will still be a good chance for some thunder, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, given the strength of the system, and the deeper storms will have the potential to mix down some of the 50-60KT low level jet crossing the area ahead of the front late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening, but an organized severe threat will be difficult to come by. Focus then shifts to winds on Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the area and a very strong surface pressure gradient is present over the area. 925 mb winds at 40-50KT and BUFKIT momentum transfer progs suggest wind gusts will begin to ramp up late Saturday night, with gusts nudging above 30KT, increasing to near 40KT during the day on Sunday, particularly central and north. A wind advisory will likely be needed across the entire area, but will hold off for now given it's fifth period. High wind warning is not entirely out of the question, but it is awfully hard to come by 50KT nonconvective gusts with enough coverage and frequency to support warning. Made adjustments to blend temperatures based on temp advection progs and low level thicknesses. Blend highs on Saturday tracked well with surface wetbulb progs and were generally left as is. Temperatures may fall steadily Sunday afternoon as the cold front continues to depart. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Models in reasonable agreement that two upper waves will drop southeast across the area in fast northwest flow aloft. These could bring a chance or rain and snow to central Indiana for the middle and later parts of next week. With fast flow, confidence in exact timing is not great, so will leave the blend PoPs as is. Normal to slightly below normal temperatures per the blend look reasonable. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/18Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1145 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Good confidence that VFR conditions will persist through 09z tonight or so. The, rain will move in and the ceiling and visibility will deteriorate as a strong southwest low pressure moves to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Winds will be east up to 10 knots through 12z and then southeast after that. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...Nield SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MK