375 
FXUS62 KTAE 210005
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]

IFR cigs with MVFR/IFR vsbys will prevail overnight. However, we
will see periods of LIFR conditions develop at all terminals
especially ECP and TLH. Expect the low cigs/vsbys to slowly
improve after daybreak with VFR conditions at all terminals by mid
to late afternoon. A few showers will also be possible with DHN
and ABY having the best chance of seeing rain. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [254 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The upper level pattern remains unchanged with a large ridge east of 
the Bahamas extending west across Florida and the Southern Gulf of 
Mexico. A trough exists over the Northern Plains. Surface analysis 
shows a wavy front extending from Northeast Florida across the far 
northeast gulf to an area of low pressure on a cold front over 
Mississippi. The front has made some northward progress over far our 
eastern and far western zones and this progress will continue for 
the balance of the afternoon. We are therefore still expecting the 
70+ degree temperatures to make it all the way across the forecast 
area before sunset. Overnight, high dew points in the mid to upper 
60s will advect over mid 60s shelf waters to produce some advection 
fog and low ceilings overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 
60s in many areas, just a few degrees shy of normal high temps for 
this time of year. Convection associated with the cold front to our 
west may survive long enough to bring a rumble of thunder to our far 
western zones late in the day. However, most areas will remain rain-
free.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper level ridge over the western Atlantic that has kept 
much of the precipitation to our north and west will remain in 
place through the short term period. Closer to home a frontal
boundary will push southeast on Thursday but will stall over 
central Alabama as the upper level disturbance responsible for 
this front will have long departed the US. Showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will remain centered over central/northern Alabama 
through the period but heating of the day on Thursday will allow 
shower development further south in our Alabama and Western 
Panhandle counties. Rainfall amounts won't be high in our region,
but some isolated locations in Alabama and Western FL Panhandle
could approach an inch. Rainfall chances lessen Friday as the
stalled front lifts back north and the ridge axis builds further
west. Can't rule out an isolated shower, but rain chances will 
primarily be confined away from the coast and in our GA and AL
counties. 

Other concerns through the short term deal with fog as moist
southerly flow traversing over cooler shelf waters along our
coasts and lighter winds will allow areas of fog to develop
Thursday night


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Dry conditions expected through most of Saturday but a round of 
showers and an isolated thunderstorm is expected overnight 
Saturday into Sunday morning as a cold front pushes through. 
Rainfall amounts will not be high with this front and severe 
weather is not expected as the front front will be weakening as it
moves through.  

Cooler and drier conditions expected Monday as northerly flow 
moves in. Looking ahead into next week the pattern potentially 
turns more active as the ridge to our east is finally weakened and
more progressive westerly flow aloft takes over. This will likely
increase rain chances into the middle part of next week as
Sunday's cold front is expected to stall somewhere to our south
and will likely lift as a warm front sometime next week.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet
will persist through much of the period. Main marine hazards 
through the end of the week will be the possible development of 
sea fog tonight and Thursday night within 20 to 30 nautical miles
of the coast. A chance of showers is possible Thursday before 
shower chances reduce Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. 
Winds turn southwest ahead of Sunday's cold front and then become 
northwesterly by Sunday afternoon. Winds will not be overly strong
with this system so advisory level conditions are not anticipated.


.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several
days.


.HYDROLOGY...

The heaviest rain will remain well north and west of the region
through the next week. There are no flooding concerns from local
rainfall as amounts will generally be under 1 inch over the next 5
days. However, looking at the next 7 to 14 days, rises on our 
larger rivers are possible as the water from the heavy rainfall to
our north moves downstream into our region.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  79  63  82  62 /  10  10  10  10   0 
Panama City   66  75  65  76  64 /  20  40  10  10  10 
Dothan        66  79  65  80  64 /  30  70  20  20  10 
Albany        64  79  61  81  62 /  20  40  20  20  20 
Valdosta      64  84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20  10 
Cross City    64  83  62  84  62 /  10   0  10  10   0 
Apalachicola  66  73  64  74  64 /  20  10  10  10  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening 
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs