375 FXUS62 KTAE 210005 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 705 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Friday] IFR cigs with MVFR/IFR vsbys will prevail overnight. However, we will see periods of LIFR conditions develop at all terminals especially ECP and TLH. Expect the low cigs/vsbys to slowly improve after daybreak with VFR conditions at all terminals by mid to late afternoon. A few showers will also be possible with DHN and ABY having the best chance of seeing rain. && .PREV DISCUSSION [254 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The upper level pattern remains unchanged with a large ridge east of the Bahamas extending west across Florida and the Southern Gulf of Mexico. A trough exists over the Northern Plains. Surface analysis shows a wavy front extending from Northeast Florida across the far northeast gulf to an area of low pressure on a cold front over Mississippi. The front has made some northward progress over far our eastern and far western zones and this progress will continue for the balance of the afternoon. We are therefore still expecting the 70+ degree temperatures to make it all the way across the forecast area before sunset. Overnight, high dew points in the mid to upper 60s will advect over mid 60s shelf waters to produce some advection fog and low ceilings overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in many areas, just a few degrees shy of normal high temps for this time of year. Convection associated with the cold front to our west may survive long enough to bring a rumble of thunder to our far western zones late in the day. However, most areas will remain rain- free. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... The upper level ridge over the western Atlantic that has kept much of the precipitation to our north and west will remain in place through the short term period. Closer to home a frontal boundary will push southeast on Thursday but will stall over central Alabama as the upper level disturbance responsible for this front will have long departed the US. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain centered over central/northern Alabama through the period but heating of the day on Thursday will allow shower development further south in our Alabama and Western Panhandle counties. Rainfall amounts won't be high in our region, but some isolated locations in Alabama and Western FL Panhandle could approach an inch. Rainfall chances lessen Friday as the stalled front lifts back north and the ridge axis builds further west. Can't rule out an isolated shower, but rain chances will primarily be confined away from the coast and in our GA and AL counties. Other concerns through the short term deal with fog as moist southerly flow traversing over cooler shelf waters along our coasts and lighter winds will allow areas of fog to develop Thursday night .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Dry conditions expected through most of Saturday but a round of showers and an isolated thunderstorm is expected overnight Saturday into Sunday morning as a cold front pushes through. Rainfall amounts will not be high with this front and severe weather is not expected as the front front will be weakening as it moves through. Cooler and drier conditions expected Monday as northerly flow moves in. Looking ahead into next week the pattern potentially turns more active as the ridge to our east is finally weakened and more progressive westerly flow aloft takes over. This will likely increase rain chances into the middle part of next week as Sunday's cold front is expected to stall somewhere to our south and will likely lift as a warm front sometime next week. .MARINE... Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet will persist through much of the period. Main marine hazards through the end of the week will be the possible development of sea fog tonight and Thursday night within 20 to 30 nautical miles of the coast. A chance of showers is possible Thursday before shower chances reduce Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. Winds turn southwest ahead of Sunday's cold front and then become northwesterly by Sunday afternoon. Winds will not be overly strong with this system so advisory level conditions are not anticipated. .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... The heaviest rain will remain well north and west of the region through the next week. There are no flooding concerns from local rainfall as amounts will generally be under 1 inch over the next 5 days. However, looking at the next 7 to 14 days, rises on our larger rivers are possible as the water from the heavy rainfall to our north moves downstream into our region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 79 63 82 62 / 10 10 10 10 0 Panama City 66 75 65 76 64 / 20 40 10 10 10 Dothan 66 79 65 80 64 / 30 70 20 20 10 Albany 64 79 61 81 62 / 20 40 20 20 20 Valdosta 64 84 61 85 63 / 10 10 10 20 10 Cross City 64 83 62 84 62 / 10 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 66 73 64 74 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Wool SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM...Dobbs AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Dobbs