169 
FXUS64 KLCH 081011
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
411 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows our departing cold front now
extending from near the mouth of the Mississippi River swwd 
through the Gulf to south of KBRO. In its wake, a chilly and brisk  
night is ongoing across the forecast area with temps mostly in the
upper 30s/lower 40. Water vapor imagery continues to show a swrly
flow in place aloft with plentiful mid/upper-level Pacific
moisture continuing to stream overhead along with periodic weak
perturbations in the flow. The first of these is causing light
returns on 88Ds mainly to our west, while a stream of mainly mid-
level cloud cover is noted bisecting the forecast area ne-sw at
this time.

The main story for today will be the cloudy/cool/breezy conditions
expected to continue. Temps will struggle to reach 50 degrees 
across much of the forecast area as good CAA continues...with 
temps across the far nwrn zones possibly staying in the lower 40s.
Combined with elevated nrly winds...approaching wind criteria over
the srn/ern zones...wind chills will top out in the upper
30s/lower 40s this afternoon. As the next weak ripple in the mid-
level flow passes this afternoon, a few light showers will also 
be possible mainly over the far nwrn zones. As of now, it looks as
if this activity will move out of the area before temps begin to
fall after sunset. Forecast lows tonight look to stay above
freezing as cloud cover lingers along with a continued nrly 
breeze. At this time, Saturday looks similar to today albeit a few
degrees warmer.

Slim rain chances return on Sunday as sfc high pressure builds
east of the forecast area, allowing an onshore wind to develop 
and thus ushering in more low-level moisture and increasing WAA.
Rain chances increase through the early part of next week as the
next storm system upstream advances across the wrn CONUS, eventually
pulling the next sfc cold front through the area on Tuesday... 
although some model differences exist which have led to holding
onto slim POPs into Wednesday. With a progressive pattern in
place, high pressure will again slip past the area while the next
system aloft advances, with rain chances returning for late in the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Extended the SCA for the outer waters through 12z Saturday, while
also inserting SCEC headlines for the inner waters and inland
lakes/bays for the same time frame. Water levels are progged to
close in on low water advisory criteria, but for now are forecast
to stay just above...highlighted this possibility in the CWF
synopsis and will mention again in the HWO this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  45  33  49  39 /  10  10  10  10 
LCH  49  38  53  45 /  10  10  10  10 
LFT  51  40  55  46 /  10  10  10  10 
BPT  48  39  50  45 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday 
     for GMZ470-472-475.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from this evening through late 
     tonight for GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

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