169 FXUS64 KLCH 081011 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 411 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2019 .DISCUSSION... Early morning sfc analysis shows our departing cold front now extending from near the mouth of the Mississippi River swwd through the Gulf to south of KBRO. In its wake, a chilly and brisk night is ongoing across the forecast area with temps mostly in the upper 30s/lower 40. Water vapor imagery continues to show a swrly flow in place aloft with plentiful mid/upper-level Pacific moisture continuing to stream overhead along with periodic weak perturbations in the flow. The first of these is causing light returns on 88Ds mainly to our west, while a stream of mainly mid- level cloud cover is noted bisecting the forecast area ne-sw at this time. The main story for today will be the cloudy/cool/breezy conditions expected to continue. Temps will struggle to reach 50 degrees across much of the forecast area as good CAA continues...with temps across the far nwrn zones possibly staying in the lower 40s. Combined with elevated nrly winds...approaching wind criteria over the srn/ern zones...wind chills will top out in the upper 30s/lower 40s this afternoon. As the next weak ripple in the mid- level flow passes this afternoon, a few light showers will also be possible mainly over the far nwrn zones. As of now, it looks as if this activity will move out of the area before temps begin to fall after sunset. Forecast lows tonight look to stay above freezing as cloud cover lingers along with a continued nrly breeze. At this time, Saturday looks similar to today albeit a few degrees warmer. Slim rain chances return on Sunday as sfc high pressure builds east of the forecast area, allowing an onshore wind to develop and thus ushering in more low-level moisture and increasing WAA. Rain chances increase through the early part of next week as the next storm system upstream advances across the wrn CONUS, eventually pulling the next sfc cold front through the area on Tuesday... although some model differences exist which have led to holding onto slim POPs into Wednesday. With a progressive pattern in place, high pressure will again slip past the area while the next system aloft advances, with rain chances returning for late in the period. && .MARINE... Extended the SCA for the outer waters through 12z Saturday, while also inserting SCEC headlines for the inner waters and inland lakes/bays for the same time frame. Water levels are progged to close in on low water advisory criteria, but for now are forecast to stay just above...highlighted this possibility in the CWF synopsis and will mention again in the HWO this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 45 33 49 39 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 49 38 53 45 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 51 40 55 46 / 10 10 10 10 BPT 48 39 50 45 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ470-472-475. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432- 435. Small Craft Exercise Caution from this evening through late tonight for GMZ430-432-435. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455. && $$ 25