771 
FXUS63 KLMK 080234
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
934 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Went ahead and cancelled the NW portions of both the Flood Watch and 
the Wind Advisory. It has stopped raining along and north of a 
Morgantown to Elizabethtown to New Castle, KY line so there is no 
longer a need for the Flood Watch. That being said, a few areas of 
standing water near low water crossings will likely hang around into 
the overnight. Use caution if traveling and never drive into water! 
Otherwise, will leave the Flood Watch going where it is still 
raining for another 3 to 4 hours. Also let the Wind Advisory go for 
areas along and north of that same line as gusts are mostly letting 
up a little 2 to 3 hours after frontal passage. There could still be 
some gusts up around 35 mph at times for the next several hours, but 
overall the threat for gusts over 40 mph is quickly diminishing. 
Again, will leave the rest of the Wind Advisory alone for another 
few hours.

Wanted to address the other concern about lingering wet roads 
freezing as temps drop into the teens and 20s by dawn. Was watching 
a web cam up near Huntingburg, IN all evening and noted that it took 
about 2-3 hours after the rain to stop for the wind to completely 
dry the pavement. So, think that the threat for lingering slick 
spots should be pretty limited due to the wind and dry air making 
pretty quick work of damp roadways. The only real concern is with 
any standing puddles that could be a little tougher to eradicate 
before it freezes. For now, will remain vigilant but not overly 
concerned with the threat for slick spots by dawn. Nevertheless, 
folks should use some caution for the morning commute.

Previous Update...
Issued at 746 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

The strong cold front has pushed east of the I-65 corridor and we 
are seeing a 10-15 degree drop in about 15-20 minutes behind it. In 
addition, winds are gusting in the 35-45 mph range behind the front, 
with SDF clocking a peak wind of 44 mph a bit ago. Will keep the 
Wind Advisory going through the evening hours to get the front 
through the area.

Widespread light to occasionally moderate rain also continues along 
and behind the front, however this is also pushing slowly east with 
time. Overall, expect about a 3-4 hour lag between frontal passage 
and the end of the light rain. Very sharp temp gradient exists as 
the Lake Cumberland area remains in the low 70s, while Huntingburg 
has found it's way into the upper 30s! Could still see some flakes 
flying on the back side of the precipitation shield, but no accums 
expected as surface temps will likely lag behind air temps due to 
the recent mild stretch of weather. Also not overly concerned about 
slick spots on roadways toward dawn as a several hour stretch of 
gusty and dry conditions should work to dry surfaces before temps 
really plummet below freezing. Suppose a few slick spots could be 
around where water has puddled, but don't expect it to be an issue.

Still monitoring some of the areas up in southern IN that had Flood 
Advisories and Warnings from earlier. Rain has stopped and will be 
calling shortly to see if problems have subsided to let the 
advisories/warnings go. Will also be continuing to keep an eye on 
area rivers as they continue to rise.

Finally, did have to issue a Special Weather Statement for a thin 
line of convection down near Lake Cumberland where the slightest of 
instability gradients still exists ahead of the cold front. Seeing 
some pretty good rainfall rates down there, albeit brief. This could 
cause ponding of water on roadways and minor nuisance flooding, but 
should be too short-lived for any advisory or warning product. Will 
keep an eye on these cells over the next half hour to 1 hour. 
Overall, everything looks on track and will be looking for 
opportunities late this evening to dial back advisories and 
headlines as things wind down. Goodbye mild weather...it was a nice 
run!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Watching for stronger storms this afternoon and evening, then much 
colder air will move into the region to close the work week. Line of 
storms that formed earlier is in the process of weakening. 
Noteworthy however is the lack of leading stratiform ahead of it as 
well as the warm air it is moving into. We have had some record 
highs ahead of this line. Consequently, we are seeing model forecast 
soundings show a narrow line of surface-based CAPE as well as plenty 
of shear. Still think we could see either new development, in the 
form of spinning low-topped showers or perhaps a reinvigoration of 
the line, as per the 12Z NamNEST solution or 16Z HRRR run, mainly 
south of I-64 and east of current convective line.

Outside of that severe weather threat, we are seeing winds gusting 
in the 30-45 mph range. We likely will see this continue for a few 
hours behind the frontal passage tonight. Not planning any changes 
to the current wind advisory. 

Cold air will blast into the area overnight, with lows crashing into 
the low to mid 20s for many locations, probably even the teens in 
southern IN. Highs Friday, likely under good insolation, should stay 
in the 25-30 degree range for southern Indiana and 28-33 for many 
parts of central Kentucky.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT 
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE...

=================================== 
Friday Night through Saturday Night
===================================

Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the region Friday 
evening and into the day on Saturday.  Combination of clear skies 
and light winds will result in a decent radiational cooling event. 
Lows Saturday morning should drop into the 10-15 degree range over 
southern Indiana and the northern half of KY.  Across southern KY, 
lows of 15-19 are expected.  High pressure will result in mainly 
sunny skies on Saturday but temperatures will remain cold.  Highs of 
35-40 look likely across the region.  By Saturday night, we'll see 
winds shift from the east to the southeast and low-level isentropic 
lift will likely get underway.  Cloud cover is likely to increase 
throughout the night and temperatures are not expected to drop as 
much.  Current data suggests that lows in the 20-25 degree range are 
likely by sunrise Sunday.

===================================
Sunday through Thursday
===================================

Moving along into Sunday, the next weather system will make a move 
toward the Ohio Valley Sunday morning.  Overall trend in the models 
is for precipitation to break out across the region from southwest 
to northeast by mid-late morning.  This is a little slower than in 
previous model runs.  Low-level temps may be marginally cold enough 
initially to support a wintry mix, but as low-level warm air 
advection scheme becomes increasingly stronger, temps will warm by 
early afternoon resulting in plain rain.  Highs Sunday afternoon 
will likely warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.  A few upper 
40s will be possible along the KY/TN border region.  Combination of 
strong isentropic upglide along with a persistent fetch of Gulf 
moisture should keep widespread rainfall in place across the region 
Sunday night.  Temps may cool into the mid 30s by early Monday 
morning, but model proximity soundings suggest that rain will be the 
dominant precipitation type.  However, there is a chance that some 
low-level cold air may work into our northern row of southern IN 
counties resulting in a mix or change over to some snow.

For Monday and Tuesday, overall upper air pattern looks to take on a 
similar setup to what we saw late last week with a persistent 
southwest flow aloft with much of the Ohio Valley located in a broad 
baroclinic zone.  Southern IN and central KY are likely to remain 
within the warm sector of the zone resulting in additional rainfall. 
Several perturbations will move through the region bringing periods 
of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall.  Rainfall amounts of 1-3 
inches look likely with localized higher amounts possible.  Given 
saturated soil conditions, this will lead to additional localized 
flooding issues in some areas. The larger story would be that this 
additional runoff would go right into our rivers which will simply 
result in a longer period of flooding with some rivers seeing 
additional rises into higher flood categories. Highs Monday look to 
warm into the mid-upper 40 across southern IN and northern KY while 
southern KY sees temps in the lower 50s. Most locations should warm 
into the 50s/60s on Tuesday when the warm advection scheme is 
maximized.

By Wednesday, surface frontal boundary looks to shunt eastward 
taking the rainfall away from the region.  A cooler airmass will 
work back into the region with dry conditions expected through 
Thursday.  Highs on Wednesday look to range from 40-45 across the 
north with mid-upper 40s across the south.  Slightly warmer readings 
are expected on Thursday.  Overnight lows through the period will be 
in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 647 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

A strong cold front is pushing through our area at this hour. It has 
already passed HNB and will pass through SDF/BWG shortly after 7 PM 
EST. LEX should expect passage around 9 or 10 PM EST. Expect winds 
to shift to a WNW component around 20 mph and gusting up around 35 
mph for a few hours after frontal passage. Gusty WNW winds will then 
continue through much of the overnight, although slowly backing off 
more in the 20-30 mph range for gusts.

In addition to the gusty winds, light to occasionally moderate rain 
will continue at BWG/SDF/LEX for a few more hours. Expect the rain 
to end at SDF/BWG around 10 or 11 PM EST, and LEX around 1 AM EST. 
Low ceilings in the low MVFR range (below fuel alternate) will 
settle in behind the frontal passage, with perhaps some brief IFR 
also. Cold dry air quickly spills in behind the front and should 
begin to scatter out the low level moisture before sunrise. This 
will bring a return to VFR, but gusty W wind will continue around 20 
mph through near the end of this cycle. Skies should be VFR for the 
daylight hours of Friday.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Listed below are the record highs and forecasts for today.

Site  Rec. (Yr)  Fore.
SDF   69 (1925)  70**
LEX   67 (1925)  70**
BWG   71 (1931)  73**
FFT   69 (1925)  69**

**Record already broken or tied today. 

Listed below are the record warm lows and forecasts/obs for 
today. The caveat is that a cold front will move through before 
midnight, likely pulling readings down below record levels. LEX 
stands the best chance to break their record, should the timing 
of the frontal passage slow down. 

Site  Rec. (Yr)  Fore.
SDF   55 (2017*) 39
LEX   54 (2017)  43
BWG   52 (2017*) 35
FFT   56 (2017)  40 

In addition to the warmth, a very moist airmass over the region
likely will bring record rainfall. Below are the record rainfall 
amounts for today for each of our climate sites.

Site  2/7 Record (Year)
SDF   1.09" (1890)
LEX   1.30" (1890)
BWG   1.05" (1933)
FFT   0.87" (2018)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for KYZ035>037-
     039>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for 
     KYZ035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Update...BJS
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...BJS
Climate...RJS